India News Online » News Analysis » Indian Politics » 

BJP : Vajpayee sets post-poll agenda

	June 21, 2004

After its electoral defeat, the differences among the moderate and harldiners in the BJP have been widening. The present controversy was sparked off with former Prime Minister Vajpayee’s statement from Manali, in Himachal Pradesh, on June 13 that the Gujarat violence was to an extent responsible for the poor performance of the party. Gujarat was rocked by communal riots after the Godhra train carnage, affecting thousands of people of minority community.

Vajpayee admitted that in the wake of the Gujarat riots, he had personally favoured the removal of Modi but there was a difference of opinion on this issue within the party.

Much to the discomfiture of the BJP leadership and the Sangh Parivar (RSS family), Vajpayee also said the issue of Modi’s removal as Chief Minister of Gujarat would be taken up at the Mumbai meet of the National Executive. In what was seen as a public snub to the former Prime Minister, BJP chief Venkaiah Naidu came out with a statement that there was no question of Modi’s removal and it won’t be taken up at the Mumbai meet. He was joined by the leaders of the RSS, VHP and Bajran Dal who hit out at Vajpayee and calling on him to own up the responsibility for the BJP debacle. Vajpayee, in a tactical retreat, did so and also took back his words on Modi.

The undercurrent of resentment against the moderate line of the BJP has now come into the open and the BJP could be heading for a churning over the policy to be adopted in the future.

There was some speculation that Chief Minister Narendra Modi may tender his resignation, but this is less likely now with the hardliners rallying around him. Former Gujarat chief minister Suresh Mehta, a moderate, is the frontrunner to succeed Modi if his resignation is accepted by the party leadership.

Mehta was among the first to defend Atal Bihari Vajpayee, after the former prime minister’s comment that the Gujarat riots cost the BJP the general election provoked rebuttals from party president M Venkaiah Naidu and other leaders of the Sangh Parivar. Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh Sarsanghchalak K S Sudarshan and Dr Praveen Togadia and Ashok Singhal of the Vishwa Hindu Parishad denounced Vajpayee and defended Modi.

Sangh Parivar leaders like the VHP’s Ashok Singhal are unwilling to accept the charge that Gujarat had cost the BJP power at the Centre. Also, according to the RSS chief this argument was baseless considering the successes registered in the Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh [assembly] election that took place after the Gujarat incidents and prior to the national election. Instead of looking for scapegoats, Vajpayee and Advani should have shown the courage to own up responsibility for the defeat as it [the national election] was fought under their leadership, the RSS advised.

But it would not be wise to target Vajpayee, who till recently was considered the “tallest leader” in the BJP. Vishwa Hindu Parishad and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh have openly charged that the BJP lost as badly as it did because it had moved away from its Hindutva ideology. VHP’s Ashok Singhal, for instance, has said the BJP leadership discarded Hindutva-related issues” and the “defeat in the elections was the ominous result of this; there was no other reason for the BJP’s defeat.” The RSS has taken a slightly a different stand. Spokesman Madan Das Devi clarified that the Sangh did not agree with the VHP’s view of holding Vajpayee and Advani responsible for the poll debacle.



The Modi controversy : Ideological implications

Analysts are of the opinion that the remarks of Vajpayee on Gujarat have only helped to sow seeds of confusion at a time when the BJP should be closing its ranks and get ready for the next round of assembly elections, starting from Maharashtra. The controversy has affected the party’s image very badly. Firstly, it proves that the party was never united on major issues. Secondly, the Sangh Parivar and other Hindu organizations have been provoked into adopting a more extreme line to defend Modi. Observers are of the view that Vajpayee’s statement is bound to encourage those forces in Gujarat which have already been working overtime for a change in the State leadership. The bitter infighting in the BJP has cost the party dearly in the Lok Sabha elections with the Congress bagging 11 seats in the state.

That there is section in the party that strongly supports Vajpayee’s opinion cannot be denied. As a mature leader, he must have taken his step with some aim, anticipating the consequences. It is believed that with a Congress- led government at the Centre, it is possible that the files of Gujarat communal violations could be reopened. The Union Minister for Textiles, Shankersinh Waghela, has favoured a judicial probe into the post-Godhra riots. That would also bring afresh Gujarat administrations’ s incapability and unwillingness in stopping the riots and maintaining peace and order in the state. A judicial probe could expose the government’s support to the riots and Narendra Modi could be in trouble. Hence, there is a view in the party that it will be better for the leadership to drop Modi and bring a new Chief Minister rather than wait for any step that the Central Government may take.

The Congress has expressed surprise over the developments and said that Vajpayee’s observations against Modi have been received with caution with the party terming it “surprising, welcome and confusing.”

The CPI general secretary, A.B. Bardhan, has described Vajpayee’s statement as an “afterthought”, which had not gone down well with other leaders of the BJP. He said the assertion of the BJP chief, Naidu, that Modi would not be removed showed that Vajpayee was not the tallest leader in the party. The BJP had not yet realised what had “struck them” and was unable to find the reason for the debacle.

In spite of all these developments, Modi was himself unruffled. After his off-the-cuff remark that he was “ready to be hanged if found guilty on any count,’’ which he made much before Vajpayee’s views on the Gujarat issue were known, he continued with his normal routine.

However, one crucial question that is being raised by political analysts in the present context is whether Modi is truly a burden to the party ? Is he actually responsible for BJP’s defeat in the recent Lok Sabha elections ? Will his removal improve the party’s image ? According to one observer, the entire development has to be understood in the context of former Deputy Prime Minister and BJP leader L.K. Advani’s statement that the party would revert back to hardcore Hindutva policy to regain its popularity. If the party has decided to go back to its earlier policy, then it needs Modi more than earlier. Party sources have admitted that “one has to accept the fact that Modi has become an icon of Hindutva. The party could not afford to remove him, if it is linked with Gujarat riots or him being a hardcore protagonist of Hindutva. It would potentially cause a backlash. Also, he could not be replaced with another leader because the party’s performance in the parliamentary elections did not match the expectations. If that is done then it would set a chain reaction in other state units and a new round of blame game would begin”.

In fact, as mentioned earlier, the RSS and its affiliates have openly charged that the BJP lost as badly as it did because it had moved away from its Hindutva ideology. A senior party leader recently hinted that some more “RSS pracharaks” (volunteers) could be inducted into the BJP for full-time work at various levels. This could mean that the RSS will keep a more watchful eye on the BJP, and to some extent, determine its agenda. The party has already decided that after the Mumbai meeting it will organise a “chintan baithak” (brainstorming session), which is usually attended by RSS leaders as well. Given the fact that the Executive Committee is a large body of over 100 members and special invitees, it is more likely that the Mumbai meeting will lay the ground for a more thorough introspection at the “chintan baithak” where some hard decisions could be taken.

The BJP could look at other factors: the party lost not only among the poor but also in urban centres. It must realise that “managing the media” do not change the ground realities or the voters’ perception. If the party decides to replace Modi, the reason would not be the riots but dissidence against him. Both Vajpayee and Leader of Opposition LK Advani are not very happy with him. The central leadership was concerned about Modi’s individualistic style of functioning, alienating majority of leaders from decision making and also from party affairs. The matter was allowed to drift because the leadership was in favour of taking time to give Modi an honourable pretext for his exit.

There is also a view that the BJP must seize the moment to confront its record on Gujarat. For far too long, ever since the riots of 2002, the party has carried a storm inside of it. Vajpayee’s comments can help the party to bring it out in the open and confront it. In the long run, that is the BJP’s best hope of making a claim to being a modern party that can govern a country of India’s diversity and being taken seriously.

The timing is all wrong, party strategists might argue. The BJP, after all, is a defeated party, just hunkering down for a fight on the pretext of the UPA’s tainted ministers. On the other hand, there may never be a better moment. The BJP is in the opposition, it has the political breathing space in which to look back and within. The penalties attached to letting the churning surface may not be as high as they arguably would be for a party in power. The time may well be propitious for the BJP, therefore, to unbottle Gujarat’s ghosts. Having said that, it would be self-defeating for the BJP to wait for the right atmospherics. Gujarat was a turning point and the party has already waited far too long to talk to itself about it honestly. As its dismal tally in Verdict 2004 has shown, the reluctance to revisit the shameful failures of BJP governments in the state and at the Centre in protecting the life and property of the minority community in Gujarat has already taken a very high political toll.