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BJP’s election strategy : Analyse delimitation and concentrate on 297 winnable seats

	January 21, 2008

The BJP, upbeat after its victories in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, has identified 297 Lok Sabha seats for special attention in the next general elections, whenever they are held. These are the seats the party won once or more in elections since 1989.



The BJP central election campaign management committee at its meeting in New Delhi on Jan. 14 decided to find out the factors and issues, leaders or alliances, that helped the party’s win in these segments at different points of time. Party strategists will also analyse the impact of fresh delimitation of Lok Sabha and Assembly constituencies which is expected to be implemented by the time of the next Lok Sabha elections.



The 19-member central election management committee was of the view that the party could come close to the half-way mark of 272 in the Lok Sabha on its own if the 297 identified constituencies are targeted effectively. The meeting decided that party MPs would prepare comprehensive reports on the 138 seats that are with the BJP at present. A 30-member dedicated group would look into the remaining 159 seats.



Senior BJP leader Sushma Swaraj said if the elections since 1991 were taken into account, the number of winnable seats for the BJP fell just by six to 291.



The 1989 polls were a one-off, with the National Front, Left and the BJP joining forces to defeat the Congress. In the 189 seats the BJP never won in any past poll, it plans to try and form alliances.



The “winnable” seats have been classified as A+, A, B+, etc. For instance, the 43 seats the party has never lost since 1991 have been graded A+ (A plus). Some it has won twice or thrice - and among those it has won only once, some have always given it a large share of votes.



The central poll committee decided to form sub-committees with specific briefs. One will be called the “decisions implementation group”; four others will respectively draft the manifesto, deal with campaign material, identify issues and interact with the media.



The central panel was set up after some lobbies protested that a coterie close to L.K. Advani was drawing up the entire poll strategy.



But a 19-member body is unwieldy, and the leadership felt that particular tasks needed smaller groups, made up of people with expertise in those specific areas. Sushma Swaraj said a meeting of the National Democratic Alliance had been called on January 22.



To present itself as a party concerned about farmers, he BJP has worked out a list of demands, which includes a more realistic minimum support price, lower interest rates for farmers and a social security net.



BJP president Rajnath Singh will present these demands in a letter to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. The letter is expected to be followed up with a meeting. “The BJP will take the fight for the rights of the farmer right up to the Prime Minister’s door,” BJP spokesperson Prakash Javadekar said.



Describing the UPA Government as anti-farmer, the BJP has asked for the implementation of the Swaminathan report’s formula for calculating minimum support price. This would basically mean that MSP would be calculated as production cost plus 50 per cent, this would be a price that would allow farmers to make profit.





Expanding the National Democratic Alliance



As part of its campaign to regain power at the Centre, the BJP is giving priority to expanding the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The BJP’s prime-ministerial candidate L.K. Advani was briefed on Tuesday, Jan. 15, morning by Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi about his meeting with All India Anna DMK chief Jayalalithaa in Chennai the previous day. Modi reportedly briefed Advani in detail about what transpired at his meeting with Jayalalithaa.



Advani was among the BJP leaders who attended the party’s election management committee meeting.





Jayalalithaa’s lavish lunch for Narendra Modi



On Jan. 14 in Chennai, Jayalalithaa treated Narendra Modi to a lunch of 45 dishes at her home, but there was no official hint of a possible BJP-AIADMK alliance beyond glowing smiles from the two leaders.



Modi and the BJP’s Tamil Nadu incharge Ravi Shankar Prasad emerged from the two-hour meeting with shining faces. Prasad stopped for a couple of minutes to speak to the media but the Gujarat Chief Minister walked straight to their bullet-proof car.



“It was a good, friendly lunch,” Prasad said. “She was a very generous host.”



Asked if this was the first step towards another tie-up with a now-on-now-off ally, he avoided answering but acknowledged that politics was discussed. “We discussed a whole range of contemporary issues,” he said.



The lunch, initially scheduled for an hour, was extended by another hour. Prasad didn’t say whether the large menu or politics was responsible but confirmed that 45 dishes were served. “It was an extraordinary lunch,” he said.



Jayalalithaa had cut off her ties with the BJP after the NDA’s defeat in the 2004 general election, which saw her party routed in Tamil Nadu.



The AIADMK and the BJP have recently been speaking on the same lines on issues like terrorism and the Ram Setu. Jayalalithaa had written to Modi to congratulate him immediately after the Gujarat poll results were declared.



Observers say that Jayalalithaa, after falling out with the BJP over the arrest of the Kanchi Sankaracharya in late 2004, is all set to jump onto the Hindutva bandwagon. In 2007 she had already indicated twice about her drift towards the BJP. First she backed the Sangh Parivar’s agitation to protect the Ram Setu and subsequently, in spite of being part of the UNPA, she asked her party MLAs and MPs to vote for the BJP’s presidential nominee Bhairon Singh Shekhawat.



Later, she distanced herself from the UNPA and a possible third front enthused by the BJP’s strong showing in Gujarat and Himachal. Though the BJP may not have a significant presence in Tamil Nadu, Jayalalithaa is confident that anti-incumbency, which cost her and the BJP dear in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, could spell trouble for the DMK-led alliance in the state this time around.



With Modi emerging as the BJP’s brand ambassador, Jayalalithaa was quick to make use of his visit to Chennai to participate in Thuglak magazine’s 37th anniversary. While a horde of political parties organised protests against Modi’s visit, Jayalalithaa chose to host the Gujarat strongman.





Quattrocchi affair : BJP blames Sonia Gandhi



The BJP has accused Congress president Sonia Gandhi of sabotaging the extradition of Bofors scam accused Ottavio Quattrocchi with the CBI help.



BJP spokesman Prakash Javadekar referred to the CBI’s recent submission before the Supreme Court in which it had said that the investigating agency failed to secure official translation from Spanish to English of the Argentine court order rejecting its request for the extradition of Quattrocchi.



“The revelation before the Supreme Court in the matter of fugitive Quattrocchi is a testimony to the planned sabotage enacted by the CBI at the behest of Sonia Gandhi,” he asserted.



Accusing the UPA government of being involved in the operation “Save Quattrocchi”, Javadekar said the CBI’s “consistent failure” had resulted in the Italian fugitive going back to his country.





Partnership with China : Advani’s attempt at image makeover



BJP’s prime-ministerial candidate L.K. Advani has endorsed the UPA government’s effort to normalise relations with China. Addressing a meeting on Democracy and Conflict Resolution in Asia, organised by the Jagran Group of publications in New Delhi on Jan. 16, he described as constructive the Manmohan Singh Government’s approach to seek a solution of the border dispute between the two countries. Advani agreed with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s view that normalisation of ties between India and China will have a positive fall out not merely for the two countries, but for Asia and the world as a whole.



Advani said that the framework adopted for Sino-Indian cooperation without holding it hostage to the border dispute could also be applicable in the case of Indo-Pak relations.



Observers say that Advani’s speech, totally bereft of conventional Sangh Parivar’s wisdom, appeared to be an attempt at diluting his hawkish image and speaking a language that almost sounded like that of the country’s first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru.



The metaphors used by the Ram Janambhoomi movement architect were peace, harmony, justice, respect for diversity and pluralism, co-existence and dialogue.



Although the attempts at an image makeover have produced such controversies as the Jinnah episode, Advani has not abandoned that path. He is still going through the phase of transformation, perhaps trying to emulate Atal Bihari Vajpayee who reflected the broad national consensus on the concept of India despite being the first Prime Minister from the Sangh parivar.



Advani, who recently skipped the VHP’s Ram Setu rally in Delhi, spoke more like an Indian leader who believed in religious harmony and consensual politics.



The BJP leader argued for complete normalisation of relations with Pakistan and China, made critical references to American foreign policy, stressed the need for economic inter-dependence among states, denounced religious extremism and hailed cultural and civilisational diversities.





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In praise of George Fernandes....



Senior BJP leader L.K. Advani has described former Defence Minister and convener of National Democratic Alliance George Fernandes as a role model for all politicians and said that courage of conviction, dedication and struggle have been the trademarks of the veteran Socialist leader. He was speaking at a function in Bangalore on Jan. 17 where the friends and admirers of Fernandes gathered to honour him at a special felicitation in the evening of his life. Observers say that failing health has drastically slowed down the former Minister, who is 77 years old.



The Dalai Lama, who graced the occasion as a mark of respect for the “genuine friendship” he enjoys with Fernandes, said he admired the aging leader for his deep commitment to the cause of the weak. “He has shown serious concern for the people of Tibet. He has always kept in his heart the problem of Tibet. I admire him for his firm stand for Tibet,” said the Dalai Lama.



Messages of praise for Fernandes from Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, TDP leader Chandrababu Naidu, SP leader Mulayam Singh Yadav and former Prime Minister I K Gujral were read out on the occasion.



Expressing gratitude to everyone who had supported him, Fernandes said: “I have led many struggles - lost some, won many. I have always kept before me the interests of the downtrodden. The Dalai Lama’s words have strengthened me and I will continue to fight on behalf of the voiceless people in our country and all over the world.”