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BJP poll strategy : No allies, to exploit temple issue

	September 15, 2003

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), heading the NDA government at the Centre, is preparing itself up for the forthcoming Assembly elections in the five states and the Lok Sabha polls next year. Apparently worried over the Uttar Pradesh fiasco, with the breaking up of its ties with the coalition partner Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), the party is drawing up a fresh strategy to regain its image. There are indications that the BJP may not be averse to exploiting the Hindu feelings by focusing on the temple issue. This may become the party’s major poll plank.

Significantly, the BJP has also announced that it will go alone in November Assembly polls.

After keeping political observers guessing, the BJP is perhaps all set to bring the temple issue back to the centrestage. This time the party feels it has a strong case as it has the support of the Archaeological Survey of India’s report. The ASI report submitted to the Lucknow Bench of the Allahabad High Court talks of a temple having existed at the disputed Babri mosque site in Ayodhya. Though a section of historians, Muslim bodies and Leftists have denounced the report of being “biased” and “doctored” , the BJP is swearing by the conclusions of the ASI, which took up the digging operations under High Court orders.

Political observers are clear that the decision has been taken owing to pressure from the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) on the temple issue. The Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) is scheduled to hold its Marg Darshak Mandal (body to advise the future course of action) meeting in New Delhi shortly to work out a programme to focus the people’s attention on Ayodhya. Besides, the court cases relating to the demolition of Babri Mosque at Ayodhya, involving top BJP leaders, could be reaching a critical stage in the next few weeks.

The dominating view in the BJP is that it should make full use of the ASI report. Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani has reiterated this view at Bangalore recently.



Uttar Pradesh factor

The BJP has come out with a booklet which contains two articles by Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani. “The booklet named Ayodhya Ka Gavai is a gist of the Temple Movement written when Advnai was arrested and confined at a guest house during his rath yatra in 1990,” party spokesperson Prakash Javedkar has disclosed.

The book release comes just a couple of days after Advani said in Bangalore that the ASI report on Ayodhya excavations has vindicated the BJP’s point that a temple had existed at “Ram janmasthan” (birthplace of Lord Ram) and that it would strengthen the party’s position on the temple movement. “We never had any doubt that the Ram Temple existed at Ram janmasthan. But now this has been proved scientifically by the ASI report,” Advani said. “It was not a government report. It was a report asked by the High Court,” he underlined.

The BJP has planned a massive rally in Lucknow on October 6 to be addressed by the party president, Venkaiah Naidu. According to party sources, the rally will be the part of its aggressive temple campaign that could deflect public attention from the collapse of its alliance with the BSP in UP and help it stem erosion in its upper caste votebank.

Yet another factor that could prompt the BJP to bring Ayodhya on to the centre-stage of its political campaign is the change of Government in Uttar Pradesh. The BJP is now the Opposition party in UP and there is every indication that building of a Ram Temple in Ayodhya will be its major plank as it sets out to expand its support base and recapture its lost political eminence in the state.

BJP president Venkaiah Naidu has announced that the party would like to “move away from caste-based politics” in Uttar Pradesh, a clear signal that it hopes to use its Hindutva (Hindu activism) ideology to counter the grip caste has over politics in the State. Advani had launched his Ayodhya `rath-yatra’ (journey on chariot) in 1991 as a counter to the former Prime Minister, V.P. Singh’s announcement on job reservations in Government organisations for the backward classes recommended by the Mandal Commission.

The BJP had been relying on the alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party to bring about 50 Lok Sabha seats from UP for the ruling National Democratic Alliance in the general elections scheduled next year. With that dream shattered, after the “political divorce” with former Chief Minister and BSP leader Mayawati, the BJP has been forced to draw up its own strategy for the State. If the alliance with the BSP had continued, the BJP could not have possibly raised the temple issue to a pitch, but that hurdle no longer exists now.

According to political observers, the BJP gameplan would once again be focussed on projecting the Mulayam Singh Government as pro-Muslim to carve out a pro-Hindu vote-bank for itself.

The assembly elections are important as they, observers feel, would be the last trial of strength between the two principal parties—BJP and Congress— before the next parliamentary elections. Also, the four of the five States going to the polls are now being ruled by the Congress but were earlier ruled by the BJP. These were states where the BJP had gained a substantial number of Lok Sabha seats in the 1999 Lok Sabha election, though it had lost all the seats in the Assembly election in 1998.

Senior BJP leader Pramod Mahajan, when asked if the assembly poll outcome would be a referendum on Prime Minister Vajpayee’s government, however said “there is little relation between assembly and Lok Sabha elections of late. These elections will be a referendum for the Congress Chief Ministers who have been ruling rule these four North Indian states. We are confident of winning the four big states and making an entry into Mizoram.” He echoed Advani’s view that the ASI report had only “confirmed our belief that a Ram temple existed.” “It is now time for the Muslim community to show its magnanimity and accept the facts. However, there will be no legislation on the matter in the present Lok Sabha, though it is now unnecessary since the facts have proved the temple’s existence,” he added.



RSS queers the pitch for temple

Without hurting the BJP-led Union government and in order to bolster its sagging core constituency, the RSS has announced, as mentioned above, a “massive public movement” for Ayodhya by the Vishwa Hindu Parishad. The sustained mass campaign based on the ASI findings would begin next month, well in time for the assembly elections in November. This announcement by RSS spokesman Ram Madhav was made after a high level meeting of RSS and VHP leaders. Details of the programme would be announced after the VHP Marg Darshak Mandal meets in the next couple of days.

The “movement” would begin with a huge rally outside Delhi in October. “This would be somewhat similar to the rally in the late-80s that kicked off the Ram Janmabhoomi Movement. Some seven to eight lakh people had attended that rally,” said an RSS leader. The RSS leader clarified that the Sangh (RSS) does not intend to pull down the Vajpayee government. “Obviously we want the government to continue. We would also mobilise our cadre to put pressure on political parties to facilitate the construction of the temple.” The RSS press note said: “The only option now is for the political parties to come together and find a legislative solution to this problem. There will be a massive mobilisation of popular will for the construction of Ram temple by the VHP.”

However, the RSS leaders, observers say, privately agree that the legislative option does not exist. Even Deputy Prime Minister Advani had asserted that the BJP is not willing to sacrifice the Vajpayee government over the temple issue. This implies that the NDA allies are still uncomfortable about bringing in a legislation to construct a temple.



Time for realignments

Politics makes for strange bed-fellows. There are signs of the BJP and the Samajwadi Party (SP) of Mulayam Singh Yadav, assisting eachother. There is also the probability of the Congress aligning itself with Mayawati, the BSP leader, for gaining support of the dalit (low caste) vote. All political players are keeping their options open.



States categorised

The BJP has also sought to revive its organisational base before Assembly elections this year and the Lok Sabha polls next year. It has classified the states as “agitation states”, “reconstruction states” and “new upsurge states”.

Uttar Pradesh tops the list of the “reconstruction states”, where the BJP’s organisational base needs to be revived following the collapse of its alliance with BSP and the installation of Mulayam Singh government.

L.K. Advani emphasised that the party should not consider Uttar Pradesh as a lost case but work earnestly to rebuild its base. Calling it a new chapter for the BJP, Advani said the situation in Uttar Pradesh presented a new opportunity for re-growth on a plank that eschewed the politics of caste. BJP chief Venkaiah Naidu said the party had to rebuild the organisation at all levels in the state with development as its new card to counter casteist parties.

Interestingly, Gujarat, Goa and Jharkhand figure in the BJP list as “good governance states” which should stand as examples for other states. It also wants party cadres to counter the Opposition campaign against the government in Gujarat.

To oust the Congress and other Opposition parties from states like Karnataka, Maharashtra, Bihar, Kerala and West Bengal, Naidu has outlined a programme of “agitation” focusing on acts of omission and commission of the respective state governments. In Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Delhi which are going to polls in November, the BJP will seek to “expose” corruption, alleged atrocities on dalits (low castes) and women, and neglect of people’s welfare.

The BJP also felt the need to go in for a “mass contact programme” in ‘new upsurge states’ like Assam, Tamil Nadu and in the North-East, while consolidating itself in Andhra Pradesh and Orissa where the ruling parties - the Telugu Desam Party and the BJP - are its partners.

Political observers are of the opinion that the BJP roadmap is in place, but the party’s direction seems lost. The BJP’s six-fold classification of states is very confusing. It wants to impress upon the “misguided voters” (as some party leaders put it) that they had gone terribly wrong, electing non-BJP parties to power, not getting agitated enough over the real issues like temples and cows.



Sonia foreign origin issue

Though at one time, the BJP had decided not to overplay the “foreign origin” issue in reference to Congress chief Sonia Gandhi, BJP leaders are now referring to the issue. L.K. Advani minced no words attacking Sonia, while addressing the party office-bearers in Bangalore recently. “Congress, being led by a person of foreign origin, has been taking an absurd stand on national and patriotic issues.” This incidentally was the second time that Advani has taken a dig at Mrs Gandhi’s origin. After the Mumbai blasts, while addressing the media at Aurangabad, Advani had gone on record as saying, “When I travel outside the country, I am often asked how come India does not have restrictions on persons occupying high positions?” National issues on which Advani felt the Congress was taking “absurd” positions include Sonia Gandhi’s opposition to the unveiling of the portrait of Veer Savarkar, a Hindutva thinker, in Parliament and bringing of the ashes of freedom fighter Shyamaji Krishna Verma to Gujarat. Advani pointed out that the “stand being taken by the Congress on these nationalistic and patriotic issues is not isolated, and is explained by the very nature of its leadership.”