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Bihar poll outcome : Lalu thrown out, Nitish takes over

	November 28, 2005

The 15-year rule of the Lalu Prasad Yadav-Rabri Devi dynasty in Bihar came to an end last week with the state electorate rejecting the Rashtriya Janata Dal-led alliance and giving a clear majority to the National Democratic Alliance, led in the state by Janata Dal (United). Going beyond the forecasts by most opinion and exit polls, which spoke of the Bihar voters delivering a hung Assembly, the people of the state put in place a new government headed by Nitish Kumar of the JDU.



The NDA gained as many as 51 more seats than its tally in the February Assembly polls which had thrown up an Assembly which could not provide a Government to the state. It ended up with 143 seats in the 243 member State Assembly. The Janata Dal United secured 88 seats while its ally, the BJP improved its performance by winning 55 seats.



The RJD-Congress alliance which also included the CPI(M) and the Nationalist Congress Party as junior partners could get only 65 seats, 24 less than the number of seats it secured just nine months back. The RJD which was the single largest party in the February elections was reduced to the position of the third largest party, with the JDU and the BJP coming first and second respectively. The RJD secured 54 seats, a loss of 21 seats while the Congress got nine seats, one less than its tally in the last elections.



The biggest loser in the election game was Ramvilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) which ended up with just 13 seats, 19 less than its tally of 32 in the February poll.



Other smaller parties also suffered a setback, losing eight seats, ending up with 22 seats compared to 30 in the February election. Only a couple of these parties were able to improve their performance, the most notable being Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party which won four seats, double of its tally in the last elections.



A study of the popular vote secured by various parties and combinations indicates that while the JDU-BJP alliance improved its performance considerably, all others lost the people’s support. The JDU and the BJP secured 35.8 per cent of the total votes polled, an improvement of 10.2 per cent over their performance in February. The RJD and the Congress secured 29.2 per cent of the popular vote, a little less than the votes secured by them (30 per cent) in the February elections. But they suffered heavily in terms of number of seats won because of the much better performance of the NDA. The Lok Janshakti Party secured about 10.8 per cent votes this time compared with 12.6 per cent in February. A significant feature of the outcome was the much smaller share of the smaller parties and Independents in the popular vote. They could get only 8.7 per cent of the popular vote compared to 16.2 per cent in February, reflecting the polarisation of voters around the two main alliances in the fray, the NDA and the RJD-Congress combine.



Political commentators and observers are still analysing the factors which led to the massive defeat of the RJD-led alliance. But they agree that the voters of Bihar refused to be polarised on caste lines, perhaps for the first time, and gave primacy to the issues of good governance or lack of it while exercising their franchise. It also appears that the Muslim-Yadav (MY) factor which had been the mainstay of Lalu Prasad Yadav in the past elections, crumbled in the latest electoral battle. Many voters belonging to the Muslim community are said to have favoured the Nitish Kumar led alliance, fed up with misrule of the state for the past 15 years. The most backward castes (MBC) also appear to have turned against Lalu Prasad Yadav as they did not perceive much improvement in their status under his rule and that of his wife, Rabri Devi. Nitish Kumar’s clean image, as contrasted with that of Lalu Prasad Yadav, who has been in and out of jail for the last few years because of his alleged involvement in the Fodder Scam, and also his disproportionate assets, appears to have swayed several voters when they exercised their franchise. Lalu Prasad Yadav was over-dependent on the caste factor as shown by his reaction to the exit poll predictions of a set back to his party. Just a couple of days before the counting of votes on Tuesday, Nov. 22, he had asserted confidently that the people of Bihar vote on the basis of caste and not development or performance. But the results have proved otherwise.





Paswan factor helped NDA



Though Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party was one of the worst losers in the elections, he had the satisfaction of humbling Lalu Prasad Yadav, against whom the Dalit leader had launched a relentless campaign. Despite pressure from the Congress and its leaders including Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh, Paswan had refused to ally his party with the RJD-led alliance. Paswan’s reaction to the election result was, “We played our part in ending Lalu’s Jungle Raj. Out mission has been accomplished.” Observers say that a close look at the LJP’s showing and the percentage of votes it polled indicates that by not going with the RJD-led alliance, it did play a role in ending Lalu Prasad Yadav’s uninterrupted 15 year rule in the state.



With a fair support base of extremely backward castes and by putting up a large number of Muslim candidates, Paswan split the ‘secular’ votes. His demand for a Muslim Chief Minister for Bihar also did the trick.



The LJP finished second in 12 seats and third in 84. Which means, if it had gone with the RJD alliance, it would have been a close call for the NDA in these seats. What is significant is the percentage of votes it garnered, which ultimately made the difference between the NDA and the Secular Democratic Front. In as many as 85 seats, LJP candidates cornered more than 10 per cent of the votes polled, which proved vital.



There were 33 seats where Paswan’s men polled more than 20 per cent votes. Even in seats where the LJP polled less than 10 per cent votes, the party got votes between 2000 and 10,000 - more than the SDF candidates’s margin of defeat.



As a result, the RJD lost 57 seats, the Congress 13 and the NCP 2. Had Paswan been with the SDF, the picture might have been considerably different.





Lalu-Paswan rift led to defeat : Sonia Gandhi



After keeping silent for a number of days on the Bihar election results, Congress president and UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi came out with her reaction to the RJD-Congress rout in the polls, while addressing the Congress Parliamentary Party meeting on Friday, Nov. 25. She said the Bihar poll outcome was a signal for secular forces to remain united to more effectively propagate the principles of equity, democracy and development. She said, “The Congress faces a big challenge in Bihar, but in this challenge lie many opportunities for strengthening the party.” Observers say that by expressing disappointment over the outcome of Bihar elections, Sonia Gandhi has taken a swipe obliquely at both her allies - Lalu Prasad Yadav and Ramvilas Paswan. Lalu was targeted because of his perceived non-governance and non-development track record and Paswan for not joining the RJD-Congress alliance.



In the same context, Sonia Gandhi underlined the party’s agenda in the five states going to polls early next year. These include West Bengal and Kerala, where the Congress will cross swords with UPA supporting parties, the Left parties.



AICC general secretary in charge of Bihar affairs Digvijay Singh has said that the election results would not have a bearing on the dynamics and equations within the United Progressive Alliance. Speaking in New Delhi on Nov. 22, he said the UPA alliance was meant for the Centre only and that the allies and supporting partners might take on each other at the state level without upsetting their relations on the national plane. Congress leaders have been highlighting that the RJD-Congress-CPI(M) combine suffered the poll debacle in Bihar because of a division of secular votes among other factors.



A section of the Congress leadership is reported to be relieved and happy over Lalu Prasad Yadav’s fate on the ground that a weakened RJD chief would turn out to be easier to handle at the national level. Congress leaders privately admit that Lalu’s clout is likely to wane and he will now be more dependent on the Congress. There would be less of the muscle-flexing that saw him grab the Railway portfolio which had been kept initially for Lok Janshakti Party chief Ramvilas Paswan. Congress leaders, however, dismissed the BJP’s assessment that UPA’s days are numbered after the Bihar debacle. But they are prepared for a resurgent and aggressive NDA in the current winter session of Parliament, which was apparent during the first three days of the session last week.



Lalu Prasad Yadav, on his part, has said that he has doubts about the claims by new Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar of providing good governance to the state and improving the lot of the people in 90 days. Speaking to a Television channel on Nov. 23, Lalu Yadav said his party will offer constructive support to Nitish Kumar for any step aimed at improving the condition of the poor. “Three months is not enough. Let him take six months, or one year. I want him to show results,” he told the news channel. He was happy with Kumar’s ascent as he considered him a “younger brother” who contributed to his rise in the Bihar polity. However, he was sorry that the Janata Dal (United) leader had “played into the hands of fascist and communal forces.”







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Most peaceful election ever



The RJD may be unhappy with the outcome of the Bihar elections, but the electorate is happy as they were able to cast their votes without fear or intimidation. Observers say that the Assembly elections were the most peaceful ever held in Bihar, which usually witnesses booth capturing and violence on a large scale. There is a tussle between the State administration and the Election Commission on “who is responsible for ensuring a free and fair poll”, but most observers feel that the Election Commission and its pointsman in the state, K.J. Rao, get the lion’s share of credit for achieving what was considered in the past impossible in the state. Not only was the violence level much lower than in the past elections, but voters could also come out and vote freely. However, RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav had a complaint that voters belonging to the poorer sections were not able to exercise their franchise. RJD leader Prem Chand Gupta and Congress leader Digvijay Singh met the Election Commission to complain about certain remarks made by K.J. Rao. But the Chief Election Commissioner said that the feedback received by the Commission showed that K.J. Rao had performed his duties very impartially and in a fair manner.



Buoyed by the Election Commission’s success in ensuring a free and fair poll in Bihar, Trinamul Congress chief Mamata Banerjee has demanded that the Commission should adopt similar measures in West Bengal which would be going to the polls next year. “Democracy triumphed in Bihar, thanks to EC’s commendable work. If the EC is just as strict in West Bengal, people would be able to vote without fear,” Banerjee said.





Bihar model for other states also



Having won its battle in Bihar, the Election Commission is to set more stringent norms in place for “clean elections” in all the five states going to the polls next year. On the list is West Bengal, from where it regularly receives allegations of “scientific” rigging.



Election Commission officials said that the Commission was working on a comprehensive strategy, expecting detailed reports from the five states’ chief electoral officers. The official said, “I can assure you that the yardstick for West Bengal would be better than that for Bihar. We are already working in this direction.”



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New 27-member Nitish Government takes office



A 27-member Council of Ministers headed by Nitish Kumar was sworn in in Bihar on Thursday, Nov. 24, but just a day later, one of the Ministers was forced to step down on account of his alleged involvement in a Teachers’ Training Institution scam. Reports say that Nitish Kumar would have preferred a Muslim Deputy Chief Minister, but had to agree to his ally, the BJP’s choice of Sushil Kumar Modi, as his deputy. In the allocation of portfolios, Nitish Kumar has kept the crucial portfolio of Home with himself, but an almost equally important portfolio of Finance has been given to Sushil Kumar Modi. There are 16 Ministers of cabinet rank in the new Council of Ministers while the remaining ten are of the rank of Ministers of State. Ten of the Cabinet Ministers and eight of the Ministers of State belong to the Janata Dal United, and remaining the BJP.



Governor Buta Singh faced embarrassing moments while administering oath of office and secrecy to Nitish Kumar and his colleagues. The crowd present at the Gandhi Maidan where the swearing in took place, shouted slogans, Buta Singh Vapis Jao (Buta Singh Go Back). It may be recalled that Buta Singh’s recommendation to dissolve the state Assembly six months ago had drawn the NDA leaders’ wrath and the Supreme Court’s censure.



NDA top brass including former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, BJP president L.K. Advani, NDA convener George Fernandes, former Punjab Chief Minister Prakash Singh Badal, and former Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister, Farooq Abdullah were among these present at the ceremony.



Speaking after the swearing in ceremony, Nitish Kumar said that his priorities are to improve the law and order situation in the state, restore basic infrastructure and create a business-friendly atmosphere. He said, “Good governance will be my priority. The administration will not discriminate against anybody and will function to create an atmosphere conducive to investment and creation of basic infrastructure.”



Trying not to sound vindictive against the previous government, he said he would “not go looking for scams, but if any scam is detected, I will not spare the scamster.” He said he may occupy the official residence of former Chief Minister Rabri Devi if it is officially designated for the Chief Minister.





Tainted Minister dropped



Even before the new NDA Government in Bihar could settle down, the pitfalls of “turncoat politics” cost it dear on the very first day. The NDA received a jolt when a Cabinet Minister from JD(U) Jitan Ram Manjhi had to resign following a controversy over his alleged involvement in a Teachers’ Training Institution scam in the 1990s. Manjhi had shifted to the JD(U) from the RJD recently.



Manjhi told the media that he resigned voluntarily as he wanted the new Government to maintain a clean image.



Before joining the JD(U), Manjhi was Minister of State for Education in the Rabri Devi-led RJD Government where Jay Prakash Narayan Yadav, now RJD MP, was the Education Minister.



Jay Prakash Narayan Yadav is at present facing a non-bailable arrest warrant for allegedly releasing his brother and the defeated RJD candidate from Jamui, Vijay Prakash, illegally from police custody on October 18, after he was arrested with arms and ammunition, huge cash and liquor bottles, at the end of the first phase of the Bihar poll.





Mixed fortunes for the Congress in by-elections



Elsewhere in the country, the Congress had mixed for tunes in the Lok Sabha by-elections held in Maharashtra and Kerala. While Priya Dutt retained her late father, Sunil Dutt’s, constituency of north-west Mumbai by a whopping 1.73 lakh margin, the party lost Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha seat to CPI candidate, Panyan Ravindaran. The byelection was caused by the death of veteran CPI leader and former Chief Minister P.K. Vasudevan Nair. Ravindaran won by a record margin of 74,000 votes. The election result is significant as Kerala will have Assembly elections next year.



Apart from regaining the Mumbai (North-West) seat, the Congress also had another boost in Maharashtra when Revenue Minister Narayan Rane, who had recently joined the party after quitting the Shiv Sena, retained the highly literate Malvan constituency. The Shiv Sena candidate in the fray lost his deposit even though party supremo Bal Thackeray had personally campaigned in his support.



There are other pointers that the Shiv Sena may face harder times in the state. Reports say that Narayan Rane is working on getting more MLAs and even some Shiv Sena MPs to leave the party to join the Congress.



The simmering discontent in the Shiv Sena became apparent on Friday, Nov. 25, when a senior leader, Raj Thackeray, a nephew of Bal Thackeray sent an angry letter to the party supremo accusing him of doing him and his supporters injustice. Reports say that Raj Thackeray is all set to revive what he calls the original Shiv Sena that cared more for Marathi-speaking people than Hindutva.



Sources close to the Sena Chief said he was irked by the letter and was seriously considering taking disciplinary action against Raj.



“In the last few years, the party is repeatedly facing defeat. Will someone take responsibility for the same,” Raj wrote. He also alleged that Bal Thackeray did precious little

when he brought it to his notice. “Whatever questions I have raised regarding changes to be made in the party should be made immediately if you want to save the party,” he said.



The developments have rocked the party which is yet to recover from the damage done by Narayan Rane’s revolt. In fact, the Sena’s rout in the Malvan byelection has intensified the power struggle between the warring tiger cubs in Mumbai’s family No.1