India News Online » News Analysis » Indian Politics » 

Bihar : Governor recommends President's Rule

	March 07, 2005

Congress gamble in Jharkhand



With no political party getting a clear mandate to form a Government in Bihar, the State continued to witness uncertain future last week. While Bihar was all set to be placed under President’s Rule from Sunday midnight for which Governor Buta Singh had made a recommendation, the Congress played risky game in Jharkhand where a Government led by JMM leader Shibu Soren was installed. The Chief Minister has been asked to prove his majority on the floor of the House on March 15. A late evening TV report said that an Independent MLA had extended support to NDA in Jharkhand.



Union Home Minister Shivraj Patil met Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Sunday and is understood to have discussed the report of the Bihar Governor with regard to political developments in the State. The meeting lasted an hour.

Raj Bhavan sources in Patna said that Governor Buta Singh was consulting legal experts to ascertain if he could allow the caretaker Chief Minister to continue for a while even after the expiry of the term of the Assembly.

Earlier during the week, all political parties, especially RJD and BJP-JDU combine resorted to hectic politicking to reach the magic figure of 122 to form the Government in the state, but failed. Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD, which is the single largest party with 75 members in the House, had staked claim to form the Government, but it has not spelt out how it will get the numbers for a majority. RJD leader and outgoing Chief Minister Rabri Devi met Governor Buta Singh on March 5 to stake her claim. The NDA did not stake its claim to form the Government, but its leaders met the Governor the same day to request that Rabri Devi should not be invited to form the Government without showing how her Government will have the numbers in the House.



-----------------BOX Item--------



RJD-BJP lose votes while

JDU-LJP make inroads

Election Commission figures show that the RJD faced a downslide of more than 11 per cent in its vote share in the Bihar Assembly elections. Barring the JDU and LJP, all major parties including the Congress and the BJP faced a negative swing in terms of vote percentage.

In case of the RJD, the vote percentage came down from 32.97 to 21.48, a negative swing of 11.49 per cent. The Congress received 4.69 per cent votes compared to 8.56 per cent in the year 2000. The BJP won 38 seats this time, an increase of three, but its vote share declined from 11.75 to 9.59 per cent. The Lok Janshakti Party, which was contesting state elections for the first time, got as much as 10.48 per cent of the popular vote. The most spectacular gain made by any party was by JDU which won 37 more seats than in 2000. At the same time, it increased its vote share from 7.68 per cent to 12.48 per cent.

Among the newer entrants, the Samajwadi Party bagged four seats and got 2.64 per cent of the vote - a gain of 1.25 per cent. Similarly, BSP - which won only 2 seats compared to its earlier tally of 5, nevertheless made a net gain of 2.13 per cent in its vote share. The decline faced by BJP confirms that the party has failed to break any ground in Bihar and has gained largely on account of its alliance with the JDU and the anti-incumbency factor.

In fact, Paswan and Nitish together (without any aid from Congress and BJP respectively) have got more than Lalu in terms of vote share. The LJP’s 10.48 per cent and JDU’s 12.48 per cent add upto 22.96 per cent, well over the RJD’s 21.48 per cent.



---------------Box over----------------





There were reports that NDA leaders were making quiet, but hectic efforts, to strike a deal with the Lok Janshakti Party ahead of the deadline for government formation in Bihar. NDA with 92 MLAs, 29 of the LJP of Rambilas Paswan, seven of the CPI-ML (Liberation), four of the Samajwadi Party and six Independents separately petitioned the Governor, requesting him not to entertain RJD’s claim for power as it would be unconstitutional to invite them because of lack of majority.

Buta Singh is also reported to have assured an NDA delegation that he would take sworn affidavits of support of 122 MLAs from any combination before sending invitation to form the Government.



Governor plays a hand in Jharkhand

The newly formed state of Jharkhand too is facing political uncertainty though the Congress has got installed a Government led by JMM leader Shibu Soren. But he is struggling to prove his majority on the floor of the House on March 15.

Both the main alliances, the one comprising the BJP and JDU and the other comprising the JMM-Congress-RJD-Left parties are evenly poised after the Assembly elections. While the BJP-JDU combine claimed the support of 41 members, including five Independents, the JMM-Congress combine claimed the support of 42 members in the 81-member Assembly. But the problem with the JMM-Congress claim was that it included two Independents who had pledged their support to the BJP-JDU alliance. The saffron bloc had also taken the trouble of parading all its supporting MLAs before Governor Syed Sibte Razi. Despite this, the Governor rejected their claim and swore in a JMM-Congress government led by Shibu Soren even without verifying if they had adequate support in the State Assembly. What is worse, instead of asking the Chief Minister to prove his support in the Assembly within a few days, the Governor gave him 20 days that is upto March 21, to prove that he enjoys the confidence of the Assembly.

Naturally, the Governor’s action led to an uproar in Parliament as well as street protests, both in Jharkhand itself, and in other parts of the country. The BJP also brought its 41 MLAs supporting the alliance to Delhi and produced them before the President at Rashtrapati Bhavan. This resulted in an unprecedented and extra-ordinary move by President Kalam to summon Jharkhand Governor Razi to Delhi for discussion in the wake of his controversial decision to install the Shibu Soren Government in Ranchi. Immediately after meeting the President on March 4, the Jharkhand Governor announced that he is advancing the date for seeking a vote of confidence by Shibu Soren. Later it was announced in Ranchi that the State Assembly has been summoned to meet for its first session on March 10, and the trial of strength would take place on March 15. In the preceding days, the new members would be sworn in and the Speaker would be elected.



Congress on the backfoot, BJP upbeat

Commenting on the latest political developments in Bihar, Jharkhand, observers say the Congress party which is heading the UPA Government at the Centre has committed political harakiri by installing a minority Government headed by JMM leader Shibu Soren, and it is now finding difficult to come clean from the present embarrassing situation.

On the other hand, BJP leaders were smiling through the week on the party’s improved performance in Bihar and its success in beating anti-incumbency to an extent in Jharkhand. They were also able to successfully raise in the public mind the spectre of the Congress reverting to its old tactic of using state Governors to oust opposition governments. The turn around in the party’s fortunes in Jharkhand and Bihar brought smiles back on the faces of BJP leaders. It also showed to them how a combination of planning and right political moves can change fortunes.

The difference in the approach towards political management between the Congress and the BJP was apparent right at the stage when alliances were being forged for the Assembly elections in Bihar and Jharkhand. The Congress did not do enough to preserve the unity of the United Progressive Alliance in the two states. In Bihar, it could not make up its mind on choosing between Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Steel Minister Rambilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP). It had an informal alliance with the LJP, but the major gainer was Rambilas Paswan himself and the BJP-JDU combine. In Jharkhand, the party allied with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), to the exclusion of the other UPA constituents in the State. The result was that beating the anti-incumbency factor, the BJP-JDU combine came back in the Assembly as the single-largest pre-poll alliance.

The BJP on the other hand, showed signs of shedding its arrogance while working out seat adjustments for the elections. It went purely by the ground realities prevailing in the two states. It realised that it had to play the role of junior partner in the post-bifurcation Bihar and settled for just 105 seats, leaving its alliance partner, the Janata Dal (United) with the lion’s share of 138. The formula was reversed in Jharkhand where the BJP, in keeping with its influence in the State, contested a majority of the seats in alliance with the JDU. The BJP made another smart move in Bihar by projecting former Railway Minister Nitish Kumar, a backward by caste, as the NDA’s Chief Ministerial candidate. This was because of the calculation that Muslims would not have the same kind of hostility towards the NDA if it was led by a backward caste leader.

With the success in the recent elections, and the political mileage gained from bungling by UPA appointed state Governors, the BJP is set to be more aggressive on various issues facing the country. It realises that the NDA, on its own, cannot pull down the UPA Government, but it can certainly play on the differences within the ruling coalition.



Haryana, the only consolation for Congress

Haryana also witnessed high drama before Jat (farmer) leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda took over as Chief Minister on March 5. Earlier, the newly elected Congress MLAs in the State had authorised party president Sonia Gandhi to nominate the leader of the legislature party. When Hooda’s name was announced on March 4, there was an immediate adverse reaction from veteran leader Bhajan Lal who was seeking to become the Chief Minister of the State for the fourth time. At a meeting with 20 MLAs supporting him, he went so far as to say that the Hooda Government will collapse within three months. But after a meeting with party president Sonia Gandhi, wiser counsels appear to have prevailed and he attended the swearing in of Hooda in Chandigarh on March 5. There are reports that one of his sons may be made the Deputy Chief Minister while another may be accommodated in the Union Council of Ministers at a later stage. Sonia Gandhi also appears to have offered state Governorship to Bhajan Lal, but he was cool to the idea of giving up active politics.

The Congress party also won an Assembly byelection in neigbouring Punjab. The victory comes as a major shot in the arm for Chief Minister Amrinder Singh. Its candidate Harpratap Singh won by a margin of over 9,000 votes. The defeat is a big blow for the Akalis which had been winning the rural constituency for more than a decade.



Goa comes under President’s Rule

Another political hotspot, Goa was placed under President’s Rule on March 4, a few hours after the Pratapsinh Rane Government secured a confidence vote in the State Assembly under disputed circumstances. The Rane Government’s one-vote victory was accomplished, courtesy pro tem Speaker Francisco Sardinha who restrained UGDP MLA Mathany Saldanha from voting along with the BJP. This gave an edge to the Congress Government in a contest where the two sides were tied at 16-16.

After imposition of President’s Rule, the Goa Assembly has been kept under suspended animation. There are indications that fresh polls may be ordered after Parliament returns from the recess in April to complete the formality of dissolution of the House.

Earlier, the Union Cabinet at a meeting presided over by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh recommended to the President that Goa be brought under President’s Rule. The Cabinet decided to act without waiting for any recommendation of Governor S.C. Jamir. After the Cabinet meeting, Home Minister Shivraj Patil told newspersons that “What has happened in the legislative Assembly of Goa today is not acceptable to the Union Government.” Before the cabinet meeting, Congress president Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh met briefly and took stock of the Goa developments.