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Assembly polls : Verdict 2005 |
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The Congress and its partners in the United Progressive Alliance have received a big setback in Bihar and Jharkhand, with the BJP-JDU combine emerging as the single largest alliance in both the states. The only saving grace for the Congress is its two-thirds victory in Haryana where it has ousted the Indian National Lok Dal led by Om Prakash Chautala from power.
In Bihar, it is a big setback for the ruling Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) which fought the election in alliance with the Left parties. The party appears set to be restricted to just about 80 seats in the 243-member Assembly against the 115 seats it had won in the last Assembly elections held in 2000.
The BJP-Janata Dal (United) alliance is all set to win more than 90 seats, about 10 more than its previous tally. The informal alliance of the Congress and Rambilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party is winning or leading in about 35 seats, most of the seats going to the LJP. The Congress is expected to win about seven or eight seats, less than the 12 it had won in 2000. The main beneficiary of the Congress-LJP alliance is Rambilas Paswan’s party which will virtually have the key to Government formation in the State. A large number of candidates belonging to smaller parties and Independents are also set to be returned to the State Assembly. Numbering about 40, they are expected to play a crucial role in the formation of a new Government in the state.
The Jharkhand results also are a big setback for the Congress fighting in alliance with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM). Both parties combined may win about 25 seats while the BJP-JDU alliance with 35 to 38 seats, will be just a little short of majority in the 81-member State Assembly. A significant feature is the strong showing by the RJD in the State which is set to win seven to nine seats and with about a dozen Independents will play a crucial role in deciding who comes to power in Ranchi.
In Haryana, where all the results are in, the Congress has gained a massive two-thirds majority in the 90-member Assembly with 67 of its candidates emerging victorious. Chief Minister Om Prakash Chautala’s Indian National Lok Dal has won just nine seats while the BJP has only two of its candidates winning. Twelve Independents have also won.
One problem the Congress is facing in Haryana is the plethora of chief-ministerial aspirants. There are as many as five leaders who are perceived to have thrown their hats into the ring. Former Chief Minister Bhajan Lal said on Sunday that he is a claimant for the Chief Minister’s post. He said a meeting of the newly elected legislators of the party would be held soon after holding discussions with the party high command.
The BJP has said that as the single largest combine, the BJP-JDU should be invited to form the new Government in Bihar and Jharkhand. Party general secretary Arun Jaitley said that the results in Bihar are a mandate against the misrule of the RJD. On its part, the RJD has sent feelers to the Lok Janshakti Party for cooperation to form a new Government in Bihar. But, LJP leader Rambilas Paswan has rejected outright any truck with Lalu Prasad Yadav’s party. He said there is no question of the Lok Janshakti Party allying with the RJD against whom it had fought a bitter battle in the electoral arena.
Technically, if all the UPA constituents in Bihar come together, they can form a new Government with the help of smaller parties and Independents. But observers say, the prospects of this happening are not very bright. There is hard bargaining ahead before a viable government can be in place in Patna. UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi may have to intervene to settle the quarrel among the UPA constituents so that they are able to keep out the NDA from power in Patna and Ranchi.
Exit poll projections
Earlier, Exit Poll projections after the third and final round of polling in Bihar and Jharkhand had the United Progressive Alliance, UPA, constituents, primarily the Rashtriya Janata Dal, RJD and the Congress in jitters as they showed that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance was all set to emerge as the single largest combine in both states. The Exit Polls indicated that both the states would have hung assemblies as no single party or combine would be able to form the government without the support of other parties and independents. In Bihar, the Exit Polls projected that Railway Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD would end up with a tally lower than that of the BJP-JD(U) combine. With the Congress also not projected to do particularly well, the possibility of Steel Minister Ram Bilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party switching sides, to form a government with the help of the BJP-JD(U) combine cannot be ruled out. Of course, Ram Bilas Paswan again stated on record that his party will not ally with the BJP or any party which has an alliance with the BJP. But when the chips are down, the possibility of new combinations emerging cannot be ruled out.
One good feature of the polling in Bihar and Jharkhand this year was that voting was by and large peaceful. A few people were killed in both Bihar and Jharkhand during the third and final phase of polling but the level of violence was much less than that normally seen in the two states in the past. Another significant feature of the polling was the fairly large turn out with 50 to 52 per cent voters exercising their franchise in Bihar, and about 55 per cent in Jharkhand. This was less than the turn-out in earlier elections but this has to be seen in the light of steps taken to end booth-capturing and bogus voting, which was rampant in the past.
The NDA, especially the BJP has praised the conduct of the elections in Bihar and Jharkhand by the Election Commission. BJP General Secretary Arun Jaitley said, “ I would like to appreciate the way the Election Commission has conducted the Bihar polls”
Supreme Court order on Haryana counting
There was a set back for the Election Commission as the Supreme Court directed it to take up the counting of votes for the Assembly elections in Haryana on February 27, as per its earlier notification, instead of February 23. The court said that as per section 54(a) of the Conduct of Election Rules, counting of postal ballots had to be taken up first by the Returning Officer. This could be done only if the counting was taken up on February 27 after the scheduled time for the receipt of postal ballots. The SC Bench made it clear that its order could not be construed as an adjudication on the powers of the Election Commission to advance the date for counting of votes in elections, depending on the exigencies. The court also observed that the Commission has no serious objection to taking up counting on February 27.
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