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Assembly polls : UP heading for a hung House again

	January 14, 2002

With just than a month to go for the UP assembly elections, an opinion poll has indicated that it would be a close race between the BJP-led alliance and the Samajwadi party, but the end result could be a hung assembly, majority eluding both the parties. The BJP seems to have certainly made up with the induction of Rajanth Singh as Chief Minister who has boosted the party’s fortunes. The Timespoll pre-election survey which was conducted in the first week of January indicated that while the BJP could end up between 144 and 154 seats in the House of 403 as compared to the present strength of 158, the Samajwadi party could increase its tally from 131 to between 150 and 160. The BSP could manage between 67 and 75. Currently it has a strength of 66. But there is nothing to cheer up for the Congress as it may not cross 15 seats and may even end up with 10 seats. For the post of Chief Minister, both Rajnath Singh and Mulayam Singh Yadav are favourites at 33 per cent each, while Mayawati trails behind with 21 per cent.



Dissensions among NDA allies worry BJP

Even as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is finalizing its nominees for the crucial Assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh, it is worried over the face-off among some of its allies in the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) which threatens to derail its prospects. The battle has begun with Rashtriya Lok Dal leader Ajit Singh sticking to his demand for at least 60 seats. He has warned that his party will put up its candidates against the BJP and fight the elections in all the 138 seats in western UP, if his demand is not conceded. Even the smaller partners of the BJP in the state have put up their list of seats they would like to contest. The demand is much more than what the BJP would like to concede as it plans to contest in at least 325 seats. The BJP partners include the Lok Jan Shakti of Ram Vilas Pawan, the JD (U) of Sharad Yadav, the Samta Party, the Loktantrik Congress and splinter groups of the Jantantrik BSP. The BJP has made up its mind that it will allot not more than 75 seats to its partners in the House of 403. The possibility of the RLD leader Ajit Singh and Indian National Lok Dal leader O.P. Chautala coming to a clash is also a matter of concern for the BJP leadership.

BJP sources indicated that the party will not be able to allot more than 30 seats to the RLD, and 10 to Paswan against his demand for 20. Considering the importance of the elections and their possible impact on the Central Government, the BJP wants to ensure that it has a substantial strength in the UP Assembly and is not forced to depend on other smaller parties for survival. The bickering with the RLD in the Bihar Assembly elections, made the Rashtriya Janata Dal romp home the winner. Ajit Singh has claimed that his party faced no danger from the Samajwadi party and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in western UP. Despite Paswan’s claim that he commands the support of over 20 MLAs, the BJP has decided that the allotment will be on a seat-to-seat basis and here too the winnability factor will be the deciding factor. After the joining of some Samajwadi party leaders, the Janata Dal (U) feels it is in a position to contest 15 seats. The BJP has formed a seven-party alliance in the state. It will be the biggest alliance, followed by Samajwadi Party (SP) which has a tie-up with the Left parties,

The finalisation of the party list is proving a tough task for the BJP as the possibility of the dropped MLAs contesting as rebels looms large. After a study of the performance of the sitting MLAs, the leadership has been advised that the BJP prospects cannot be good unless a substantial number of MLAs are dropped and fresh faces are fielded. Many of the MLAs face either corruption charges or are involved in criminal cases which has proved embarrassing for the Chief Minister Rajnath Singh. Then there are some MLAs who had come out of their parent party to back the BJP-led government. If they are ignored, they too could pose problems for the party. This time it has been decided that only those with winnable chances will be nominated and there will be no yielding to pressure on fielding relatives of politicians lacking in any political base. Loyal workers will be preferred.

The BJP’s campaign is yet to pick up momentum. Only Prime Minister Vajpayee visited his home constituency Lucknow but confined his speech to terrorism and the .challenge posed by Pakistan. The tough talks were tailored more to the party workers’ sentiments who want to project the image of the BJP being a party that will tame Pakistan and eliminate cross-border terrorism once for all. The UP unit of the BJP is clamouring for Home Minister L.K. Advani to campaign in the elections. There are no takers for party chief Jana Krishnamurthy whose accented Hindi may not go down well with UP voters. Advani has been asked to make at least 10 visits to address at least 20 public rallies. Vajpayee has been asked to make six visits and address 12 meetings. The hawkish Advani, BJP leaders feel, will be more appealing to the crowds as the BJP’s main plank is terrorism and how the government is fighting the challenge from Pakistan. The recent visit of Advani to the US and his no-nonsense comments have gone down well with the media as well as the people who do not want America to go back on its resolve to fight terrorism everywhere.

After the Prime Minister’s exhortation to BJP activists to exercise restraint on the Ram Temple issue and not to raise divisive issues, the party is desperate for a vote-catching issue. The tension with Pakistan has come in handy. At a recent meeting Union Sports Minister Uma Bharati exhorted the people to prepare for a war against Pakistan. The Dec 13 attack on Parliament has given a handle to the Hindutva outfits to raise the battle cry and demand strikes against suspected terrorist camps in Pak-occupied Kashmir.

The BJP will begin the exercise of selecting its candidates for the Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Punjab and Manipur at its Central Election Committee meeting in Delhi this week. The ticket will be allotted to BJP candidates at the meeting to be attended by Vajpayee, Advani and H.R.D. Minister M M Joshi and chaired by party president Jana Krishnamurthy, on the basis of the recommendations of the state units. For the crucial Uttar Pradesh poll, the top leadership will analyse in detail the recommendations of the state unit before finalising the seats. Consultations were on between Chief Minister Rajnath Singh, state unit BJP president Kalraj Mishra and the Central leaders on the electoral strategy. The meeting will also review the status of the allies and the number of seats to be given to them. The fight against terrorism would be their major poll plank while another issue to be highlighted would be the “communal tension free”, five-year rule of the BJP in the state.



Prospects of BJP

Until December 13 happened, it was clear to most observers of the political scene in UP that the winds of change were blowing across the State. Prof Zoya Hasan of the Centre for Political Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, examines these patterns, He identifies two broad trends that emphasise the continued centrality of caste politics. The significant political churning underway since the late 1980s has brought into play the numerous overcasts to restructure the power and class and caste privileges of the upper castes.The political assertion and organization of the lower castes has created a three fold division in state politics, with the upper castes going with the BJP, the OBCs with the Samajwadi Party and the Dalits to the BSP. Faced with tough competition from the SP and the BSP, both of which have given the lower castes a share of power in proportion to their population, the BJP attempted to court the OBCs by increasing their representation in the candidate list and the Cabinet Potentially, it can slice off the upwardly mobile groups but only by outbidding the SP. This has proved to be difficult because it would trigger an erosion of its upper caste vote bank. As an alternative, Rajnath Singh proposed a quota-within-quota for the most backward classes, but this too has not worked.

Though Ayodhya has not dampened caste identities, the BJP has sought to keep the dispute alive, even as it downplayed the possibility of building a temple and highlighted the need for a consensually agreed solution. We have seen the extent to which BJP reaped the dividends from the Ayodhya campaign. However, since the parliamentary elections since 1996 the party shunned controversial issues in order to broaden its base of support. At the national level it is attempting to reconcile two very conflicting aims: widening the support base to include those not interested in temples, while continuing to placate and attract hardcore followers of Hindutva. Hence,the paradigmatic division of labour between Atal Bihari Vajpayee charming the middle classes with his occasional musings and L.K.Advani regularly whipping up enthusiasm for Hindutva .But there is no such disingenuous doublespeak in Uttar Pradesh.

An election sans Ayodhya seems an improbability. The media says the temple is being prefabricated off-site in preparation for placement.The VHP loudly proclaims:the Mandir would be constructed after March 12 come what may. Yet, all this may not yield electoral gains. Alarmed by expectations of an imminent decline in political support, the BJP has changed its strategy from Ram temple to war against terrorism,as its main plank in the Assembly elections. Concentrating on the terror campaign and the diplomatic offensive against Pakistan, The BJP leadership is hoping to turn the tide against its rivals . It is seeking to underplay the Hindutva issues to capitalize on the public anger against the terror attacks. In Lucknow, the Prime Minister asked various Hindu organizations to put the Ram temple on hold. Political pundits will no doubt interpret this as an attempt to distance the BJP from religious mobilization signified on the emphasis on the “national agenda of anti-terrorism“ and the “ consensual issues of national security“. TO be sure ,the de-escalation of the rhetoric on Temple would be replaced by the escalation on terrorism. For its part the VHP‘s religious mobilisers make no distinction between the Ayodhya and cross-border terrorism.

Even as the rhetoric of political contestations is focused on Ayodhya, intellectuals and cross-border terrorism, POTO and SIMI, the real politics of the State has centred on distribution of jobs and preferences, privileges and dis-privileges. However, the discontent with the BJP governments’ performance is all pervasive even among its traditional upper caste vote banks. Particularly, its inability to provide a clean and efficient administration. According to analysts, the BJP’s popularity is waning despite strident appeals to religious identity and patriotism. And so the intertwined issue of temple and terror is designed to redirect the electorate’s attention from the problems of the governance and economic development to anxiety about national security.

Whether the collective rage over the bane of cross-border terrorism will prevail over the shared resentment against poor governance , inequity, poverty and swelling unemployment remains to be seen. War or no war, it is clear that UP’s party system will remain fragmented as ever, with no party representing the political will for structural change and the readiness to promote a public discourse of development that can address the vital concerns of the economic majority.



Temple major issue : RSS

The Sangh outfits (RSS, BJP, VHP, Bajrang Dal etc.) have made it clear that unless there is a war with Pakistan, they will not consider putting off the drive for temple construction at Ayodhya. The RSS announced that the Vishwa Hindu Parishad’s ‘Sant Yatra’ (March of the Saints) was on. Praising the Government’s action against terrorism, the RSS reiterated that Pakistan-occupied Kashmir should be bombed if terrorist camps are still active there.

The ‘Sant Yatra’ will start from Ayodhya on January 20 and reach Delhi on January 27 to meet the Prime Minister just a couple of weeks before the UP elections.BJP president Jana Krishnamurthy and general secretary Sanjay Joshi had attended the just concluded high level RSS meeting in Vishakhapatnam, where the terrorism and Ramjanambhoomi issues were discussed. On whether the Sangh felt more action has to be taken against Pakistan, the RSS suggested that the Indus Water Treaty could be scrapped, stopping the flow of water into Pakistan, but added that a war should be the last option.

Making it very clear that the Ramjanambhoomi and terrorism issues would be linked during the ‘Sant Yatra’, the RSS spokesman explained that the VHP’s March 12 deadline did not imply that the Parivar would begin construction the very next day. The deadline only implied that the government should clear all hurdles in the way of the construction of the temple before March 12.



Advantage Samjawadi Party

With a question mark hanging over a war with Pakistan, the BJP finds itself without a poll issue virtually leaving its main rival Mulayam Singh Yadav led-Samajwadi party in an advantage situation.

Going by opinion poll surveys, it seems that the Samajwadi Party(SP) is the front runner in the polls. The recent C-voter/Pioneer poll survey shows the BJP and the SP are neck-to-neck. The survey says that the BJP and SP can get between 125 and 145 seats each, and that the BSP would be a third, with 76 to 96 seats. The Congress(I) would end up with 18-38 seats. In the 1996 Assembly elections, out of the total 425 seats, the BJP, the SP and the BSP got 174,110 and 67 respectively. The Congress had 33 seats and others got 41 seats. After the bifurcation of the State in 2000, 22 seats went to Uttaranchal and thus this year elections will be held for 403 seats.

The SP among other things is cashing in on the anti-incumbency factor against the BJP’s poor governance. “Incompetent” chief ministers, ministers with a criminal nexus and of poor law and order situation have been primarily responsible for the unpopularity of the BJP government in UP. The BJP High Command’s decision to ease out the aged and ailing R.P.Gupta and usher in Rajnath Singh has improved matters. Several of his decisions were aimed at increasing his popularity, not the least of which was his decision to out-Mandal Mandalites, Rajnath Singh announced that his Government would bring in reservations for the Most Backward and Extremely Backward classes as well as the backward sections among the Dalits. With this, Rajnath Singh could breach the traditional bastions of main rivals- SP and BSP. However the Supreme Court stayed the ordinance.

The entire Muslim vote bank, which constituted a large percentage, is backing the SP. Mulayam Singh Yadav has repeatedly held both the BJP and Congress equally responsible for the demolition of Babri Mosque and favoured a judicial solution to the dispute. The Samajwadi party claims that both the BJP and Congress are trying to mislead the people on the Ayodhya issue to gain political mileage. The party manifesto says that the Muslims have expressed trust in the judiciary to resolve the dispute, but the BJP and its frontal organizations including the Vishwa Hindu Parishad considered it a matter of faith. Political analysts observe that Samajwadi Party’s promise to protect all places of worship and to enact laws to check atrocities on minorities can prove an important tool to woo the voters.

Prevention of Terrorism Ordinance (POTO) has been also, to some extent responsible for the slide in the BJP’s popularity. Though the BJP leaders have repeatedly been arguing in Parliament that POTO was a ‘new war against terrorism’ it is widely held that the law was the replacement for the Terrorist and Disruptive Activity Prevention Act (TADA) which was allowed to lapse in 1995 because of public outrage at the manner in which it was being abused by the police to harass the Muslim community.

On the other hand, the Samajwadi Party has openly opposed the promulgation of the ordinance and has decided to vote against it in Parliament. The SP is using POTO in its election plank to gain support from the voters. The Samajwadi Party, has also alleged that the BJP-led NDA government was creating war hysteria to gain political mileage in the coming Assembly elections. Mulayam Singh Yadav feels that the government instead of indulging in rhetoric, should have launched military strikes at the terrorist training camps in Pakistan occupied Kashmir. But now that this major poll issue does not remain, the Rajnath Singh government is bereft of any major poll plank. Uttar Pradesh elections are very crucial for BJP for it will decide the future of the BJP-led NDA at the Centre. A BJP failure to retain power, could mean the allies of the NDA will exploit it to their advantage. With the “Big Brother” BJP weakened in the largest state, they can also contemplate a change in the NDA leadership. The question that arises now is will the BJP led government still opt for a military confrontation to score over its rivals in an electoral battle?

How about the chinks in Mulayam’s armour? For one, he has to guard against over-confidence. Often, it has been noted that parties that lead in the beginning of a poll campaign, lose steam midway and narrowly lose the race. This time, SP may fall short of a majority in the new Assembly in which case, it has to depend on some other parties which will strike a hard bargain for support in the form of ministerial posts. The SP’s arrogance is already costing it the friendship of supporting parties like the Left which are upset at the unilateral announcement of names for the seats without consultations with Mulayam’s allies. It has to be remembered that his strong point remains only the backing of minorities. Whether he will be able to cut into the respective vote banks of the Congress, BJP and the BSP will decide who will rule UP for the next five years.



State of Congress

Undaunted by the general opinion that the Congress stands little chance in the battle of giants, party chief Sonia Gandhi has embarked on a vigorous campaign to hit out at the BJP-led government’s failure on all fronts. At her meeting in Kanpur, Sonia pointed out that the state had suffered heavily under successive non-Congress governments. She accused the contending parties of communal and casteist forces of vitiating UP’s political atmosphere. Though the Congress leaders of UP have sought the services of her daughter Priyanka for the poll campaign, Sonia has not yet given her views on the issue. Countering the BJP claims of fighting terrorism and the charge that her party was not cooperating by backing the controversial Prevention of Terrorism Ordinance, Sonia pointed out that the late Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi had lost their lives while challenging terrorism. She asked the electorate to vote out the Rajanth Singh Government so that the State could once again prosper.

Meanwhile, the Congress leadership is worried that the raging infighting in the Punjab unit may derail the party’s prospects in the State. But the dissidents are refusing to budge. Congress leaders have admitted that with the finalisation of the list of candidates for the forthcoming Assembly elections in the state taking far more time than it should, the arch-rival and ruling party Akali Dal may have already got a head start in Punjab.

The Akali Dal, an ally of the Bharatiya Janata Party, is part of the ruling NDA alliance at the Centre. “The Akalis have already started campaigning extensively in the state. All our Punjab leaders are still in Delhi fighting over the ticket. This infighting could hurt us,” said a senior Congress leader. Warring Punjab leaders pitched camp at the Congress headquarters in Delhi last week, squabbling over the grant of ticket to their nominees. This has delayed the scrutiny of lists.

Chief Minister and Akali Dal leader Parkash Singh Badal is making news in Punjab for addressing election rallies in a specially built vehicle after a debilitating injury.

What worries the Congress leadership is that the infighting may scuttle its comeback bid. The party hopes to form the government in the state, but MPs, up in arms against the Pradesh Congress Committee President Capt. Amarinder Singh, have warned that this would not be possible without their support. Dissident leader and MP Jagmeet Singh Brar said, “We have a good chance but, for that, Amarinder Singh would have to show grace and meet workers in the state rather than try and push his nominees.”

The battle is over the grant of the ticket to relatives, which both sides accuse the other of doing. Several MPs, led by Brar, met Motilal Vora, AICC general secretary in charge of Punjab, to plead against ‘irregularities in lists’ proposed by Amarinder Singh. Denying that they were only fighting for grant of ticket to their relatives, the MPs allege that the PCC chief has ignored prominent Congress leaders, instead backing the candidature of “relatives, friends and industrialists”.

The Congress smelt electoral success about six months ago and has since then been witnessing an intense factional struggle stalling the promise of releasing the list well in time. But this is not to be and the time lag has only intensified the competition. It is now obvious that the party has lost a bit of the momentum it had acquired some months ago and it can regain it even at this stage if it demonstrates a new sense of unity and purpose. Its consolation lies in the disarray of the Opposition. The Akali Dal (Badal) has released a list of 36 candidates but that is only about one third of the total seats. It is yet to firm up an alliance with the BJP with many SAD members wanting to fight from urban areas to benefit from the last minute concessions. Urban areas are the preserve of the BJP and it is reluctant to give up these seats. The BJP has a legitimate claim to a determining strength in the Assembly as in the previous House and it is not likely to settle for anything less. The two big spoilsports are the Panthic Morcha and the BSP. They may not determine the final result but can upset the applecart of the two main parties.



Punjab scene

Election compulsions seem to be taking a heavy toll of the accord between the Akalis and the BJP in Punjab threatening to put them on a collision course. While the BJP is making POTO an election issue to consolidate the Hindu vote bank, the Akalis seem to be bent on placating the hardliners. The recent moves by the government of Punjab(read Akalis) to reinstate two policemen involved in the assassination bid on former Punjab DGP J F R Riberio and the killing of a SSP of Taran district, besides three others, has again brought to the fore the government‘ s soft corner towards hardliners.

The BJP ,has been left in a piquant situation by these moves as reports indicate the direct involvement of Akali minister Suchcha Singh Langha in Gurbachan Singh‘s reinstatement. Talks are rife in the corridors of power about Langha‘s proximity to Gurbachan ,who hails from the minister‘s home constituency of Dharwal. A senior BJP leader said this proactive attitude of the Akalis towards hardliners is causing immense resentment in the party‘s rank file.”We have already seen the poor response to our Rath Yatra, particularly from the urban Hindu voters and these moves would only alienate them further”,said the leader It was pointed out that ever since the Akalis came into power their attitude has been “soft” towards hardliners .The Government has been placating the hardliners by giving compensation and waivers to Jodhpur Sikh detainees. Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal had initiated the process of paying the compensation to about 250 youths who were long detained in Jodhpur jail following the Operation blue star at the Golden Temple complex.

Meanwhile, the Chief Minister had been upset at the recent Election Commission reprimand and several Akali leaders for flouting the Commission’s model code of conduct. The commission took objection to Badal and some Akali leaders moving in huge motorcades in violation of the code. In fact, an upset Badal has sent a letter to the Prime Minister seeking a fair deal from the EC and check any bias towards the ruling party.

Badal is also making serious efforts to patch-up with the G.S. Tohra group. But the Congress and the CPI have agreed on seat-sharing for the February 13 elections. Badal has made it clear that his offer of peace with the Tohra group should be without conditions. The Akali unity moves gathered momentum with poll pundits predicting that the Congress will do as well as in the Lok Sabha elections unless the Akalis patched up in time to present a unified front. The presence of rebels in the field can upset the Akali applecart. In the meantime, the movement of people along the border areas owing to the tension between India and Pakistan has also raised doubts whether the elections in the border districts of Amritsar, Gurdaspur and Ferozepore.