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Assembly polls : Scene hots up in Uttar Pradesh

	January 07, 2002

With elections to the UP Assembly just over a month away, the clock is ticking for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the State as well as the BJP-led coalition at the Centre. The party is still confused whether to take advantage of the current tense ties over the fight against terrorism with Pakistan or go back to the familiar temple issue. There is no doubt that the BJP plans to exploit the opposition to the Prevention of Terrorism Ordinance (POTO) by other parties as an election plank. The combined might of the entire Opposition led to the failure of the Government to introduce the Bill to replace the Ordinance in the Winter Session of Parliament. Now the Government has resorted to the re-promulgation of POTO with the hope that it could be taken up in the Budget session of Parliament. The Congress and the Samajwadi parties too are determined to attack POTO alleging it had been promulgated to harass the minorities on suspicion of being in league with terrorists. The fact that equally fundamentalist Hindutva outfits like the Vishwa Hindu Parishad and Bajrang Dal have not been banned while the Students’ Islamic Movement of India had been outlawed, will be pointed out. The Election Commission’s strictures on the Government for deletion of many names belonging to the minority community will prove an embarrassment for the Rajnath Singh Government. The fear and insecurity among Christians over the “hate campaign” against the missionaries launched by the saffron brigade, too is bound to figure in the poll campaign. Issues like the alteration of history books for schools to promote the BJP ideology and the reinduction of tainted Ministers into the Union Cabinet are likely to be raked up to expose that the BJP’s so called corruption-free governance was just an eyewash. The recent charges of corruption against some of the State Ministers too have come at an inconvenient time for the Chief Minister who is unable to drop the senior-level Ministers who are also BJP heavyweights. Singh found it much easy to sack ministers not belonging to the BJP as part of his crusade against corruption.

The BJP has refused to commit whether the party would ask the Vishwa Hindu Parishad to defer its temple programme. The party spokesman merely said that the party would toe the Prime Minister’s line on the issue. The party spokesman was commenting on Prime Minister Vajpayee’s statement asking the VHP to defer the temple programme. The VHP is expected to bring priests to Delhi on January 27 on a “yatra” from Ayodhya, thereby upping the ante on the eve of UP elections. Shot of a war with Pakistan, the VHP has made it clear that it will not give up its temple construction drive which is to formally begin in March. There is no sign yet that the Prime Minister had been successful in evolving a satisfactory formula that could be acceptable to the VHP as well as the minority bodies. Though the Prime Minister and the Home Minister have repeatedly asserted that the Government will go by the apex court verdict on the temple issue, behind the scenes efforts are continuing to reach an out of court settlement.

The BJP units of Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Punjab and Manipur are expected to complete the choice of candidates by January 10. The Central Election Committee will then finalise by January 16 the lists of candidates for the assembly elections. Former party president Kushabhau Thakre and Pyarelal Khandelwal, general secretary in charge of elections, are in UP overseeing party preparations, including candidate selection. The state election committees would also hold talks with allies to formalise seat adjustments.

Though the BJP has claimed for itself 325 seats in UP, it still has to split over 75 seats among its allies which include Union Ministers’ Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal, Fernandes’ Samata Party, Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti and other splinter groups. In Uttaranchal, the BJP is going it alone and the party is yet to finalise the sharing of seats in Punjab, where it is an ally of Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal’s Akali Dal.

The importance the BJP central leadership attaches to the UP assembly poll was evident from the visit of Rajnath Singh to Delhi when he had detailed talks with Vajpayee, Home Minister Advani and M.M.Joshi. Despite the fiscal difficulties, the Centre had been liberal to the State’s demands for funds The CM has been on the road for the past few months wooing the electorate with sops and promises. The Samajwadi Party had the headstart and the party was the first to ask all its MLAs to resign from the assembly to force early elections, but it did not work according to plan. If the BJP does manage to retain power, it will go a long way in strengthening the hands of the Prime Minister in running the coalition at the Centre more effectively. But a defeat would mean that the BJP will be considered a weak party and force the allies of the NDA to have a second look at their relations with the BJP in the context of their own political future. Everything depends on how many seats the Congress and the BSP manage to get in the final tally. A solid and committed Dalit vote with a sprinkling of Muslim vote makes the BSP the dark horse in the race as it might wield the balance of power at the crucial time.

Reports of Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) chief O.P. Chautala, an ally of the BJP at the Centre, wooing Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) leader Mayawati have also alarmed the BJP bosses. Chautala is upset at the importance being given by the BJP to Ajit Singh of the RLD who has also bagged a Union Cabinet berth. So the INLD has opened a unit in western UP to cut at the RLD roots. The saffron camp is worried at the division of its own votes going over to the BSP.



RSS calling the shots

It is clear that the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) will be calling the shots in the crucial State of UP. Departing from its advisory role, the RSS is increasingly installing its loyalists in key positions in States where the BJP is in power. The Chief Ministers of UP, Uttaranchal and Gujarat are all known RSS loyalists. The dividing line between the BJP and the RSS is slowly fading and its influence and stamp is evident in all major appointments at the political and administrative levels at the Centre as well as in the States. So it is no surprise that the RSS is setting the poll agenda for the BJP. Senior Sangh leaders have been camping at the official residence of the Chief Minister in Lucknow, to discuss selection of candidates. Even the issue of poll alliance with other parties is being discussed threadbare.

Much importance is being given to these discussions because it is for the first time that senior RSS leaders, including the head of Awadh, Om Prakash, have agreed to hold a meeting outside the precincts of Keshav Bhawan - the Sangh’s headquarters in Lucknow. The Chief Minister, State BJP chief Kalraj Mishra and organisational secretaries of the BJP appointed by the Sangh are holding talks. None of the senior ministers, including Lalji Tandon and Om Prakash Singh, was invited.

Incidentally, Kushabhau Thakre had already held seat-wise discussions with senior state leaders almost a month back and prepared a constituency-wise panel of candidates. It would now be up to the election committee to finally decide about candidates. The same list has been put under the microscope by Sangh leaders. A senior Sangh functionary said that senior RSS leaders, including Om Prakash and Vijay Goel, would judge candidates according to the feedback received from different sources. These leaders would have a final say on the candidates selected by Thakre.

Observers felt the crucial meetings were a clear indication that the RSS had decided to help the BJP. The message became clearer after Sureshrao Ketkar, in-charge of UP affairs, asked Sangh workers to forgo their personal interests for the sake of the party and the country. In this hour of crisis, Sangh workers should help the BJP to defeat anti- Hindu forces, he added. The timing of this message was considered important as RSS workers had become disenchanted with the BJP rule in the State. Just a few months back they had voiced their anger over the raw treatment meted out to them by the BJP ministers. Even the message from Nagpur, RSS headquarters, was not to help the BJP in the elections.



Congress strategy spares neither BJP nor SP

Judging by the talking points the Congress has prepared for the Uttar Pradesh poll, the party will not only focus on the BJP’s poor performance, but also expose the Samajwadi Party. It has even accused the Samajwadi Party of being as communal as the BJP. Recent socialising between Congress president Sonia Gandhi and SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav had set off speculation about the two arch rivals coming closer. The Congress has contended it will contest the polls on its own, but persisting speculation over a Congress-SP tie-up has left UP Congress workers confused.

The 40 talking points listed by the Congress think tank exhaustively detail the Rajnath Singh ministry’s all-round failure. But the eight-page document is equally unsparing in its criticism of the Samajwadi Party. The Congress’ public posture is based on its assessment that it needs to strengthen its state organisation and try to win more seats to place it in a better bargaining position vis-a-vis the SP in case of a hung Assembly. The Congress “talking points” damn both the BJP and the SP equally for communalising the polity.

The document notes that if the Afghanistan events were branded by the BJP as a “clash of civilisations,” the SP was equally responsible for inciting passions among members of the minority community. It adds that the SP engineered communal riots in Lucknow for which the entire Muslim community was made to suffer. Dubbing the SP as a virtual “traitor,” the Congress document says it is the SP which facilitated the BJP’s return to power when it refused to support a Congress-led government in 1999.

The Congress, it said, had supported Mulayam Singh Yadav on several occasions in the past, but he had ended up “cheating” the Congress. It says it has been the SP’s consistent policy to show down the Congress to ensure that the Muslims do not return to its fold, and it is with this purpose that it spread stories about a Congress-SP alliance.In an obvious attempt to project the Congress as a truly secular party, the document seeks to rubbish Mulayam Singh Yadav’s claim of being the Babri Masjid’s protector. The Congress says though the SP sought to consolidate its minority vote-bank by blaming the Congress for the Babri Masjid’s demolition, it was the SP which admitted Sakshi Maharaj, the main accused in the Babri case, to its fold and also gave him Rajya Sabha ticket.

The “talking points,” however, are silent on the Bahujan Samaj Party though senior Congress leaders maintain that the BJP, BSP and the SP will be the target of the Congress attack. AICC general secretary Ghulam Nabi Azad, in charge of UP, said the BJP remains the prime target, but the Congress will not hesitate to hit out at the other parties. All these parties, he said, have been in power in UP but have failed to do anything for the development of the state.

Congressmen from Uttar Pradesh thronging the party’s headquarters in Lucknow are apprehensive that the Samajwadi Party factor could adversely affect the party’s fortunes in the elections. The workers claim that the rush of ticket-seekers is indicative of the fact that the battered State Congress could be expected to give a better performance this time. But the perceived thaw in relations with the Samajwadi Party and the possibility of a post-poll alliance are not going down well with grassroots workers. They argue that the Congress is unlikely to do as well as it could have. It should have capitalised on the declining fortunes of the BJP. But encouraging criminal elements at the state level and responding favourably to Mulayam Singh’s overtures at the Centre might prove to be its undoing. A leader of the Pradesh Congress Committee said the talk of a post-poll alliance to form the government was hurting the Congress’ chances as it sent out confusing signals both within the party ranks and to the electorate.

The Congress workers say in view of the fact that both are bitter rivals in the State and even have common voter bases, it should be made clear that there will be no truck with Mulayam Singh even after the elections. That’s the message that the party has been trying to send out, but not with as much emphasis as may be necessary. With the State crucial to power equations at the Centre, the Congress is striving hard to project itself as a key player in its own right.

In the background of the ground reality that the Congress had not been doing well at the State-level in recent years, the party has begun shortlisting candidates for the four States going to the polls in February. The Congress has sought to make clear it that it will contest all Assembly segments in UP although its leaders admit that it will focus on about 150, targeting a reasonable 50 seats in the final tally. Senior party leader, Ghulam Nabi Azad, has asserted that there will be no seat-sharing, or even “friendly contests,” with the party contesting all seats on its own, but party sources said the Congress was aiming at enough seats to tilt the balance.

Political observers say the emerging scenario already points to a fractured verdict, with no party likely to get a clear majority in UP. The Samajwadi Party has sensed that it is within reach of forming a government with the help of a willing and better-placed Congress after the elections. Its party leaders are already openly talking about it. Hoping to beat a weaker BJP fighting an anti-incumbency factor, the Congress also expects a boost in fortunes with the induction of several important UP leaders from other parties in the coming days.

The shortlisting of nominees by the parties has already led to the disgruntled and ignored party candidates flocking to the camps of the rivals, throwing political morality to the winds. The major parties like the SP, BJP and the Congress have been claiming “big catches” and defections. Influential leaders are being wooed with money power as well as plum seats. For instance, a prominent religious leader and Janata Dal (S) Rajya Sabha MP Maulana Obaidullah Azmi joined the Congress as did Chhote Lal Gangwar, a Samajwadi Party MLA from Nawabganj, Bareilly. The Congress claimed that several others from the SP were expected to come over as the poll date neared.

The Congress strategy of hitting out at both the BJP and the SP is interpreted by analysts as a ploy to retain its own identity instead of being seen as an ally of the SP. Though there could be some bargaining later at the time of formation of the Government if the BJP fails to make it, at the moment party chief Sonia Gandhi does not want the Congress to be clubbed along with Mulayam Singh Yadav’s party. Sonia has been warned by her advisers as well as the UP unit leaders that the SP was trying to make it up with the Congress only for selfish reasons as he was eyeing the Congress supporters among the upper castes, who might have got disillusioned with the BJP’s agenda. Even the Muslim vote that SP is counting on, could accrue to the Congress as the community might feel that supporting a national party which could even come to power in future would be more beneficial than aligning with a regional party, that had no claim to influence beyond UP.

Till now, the Congress has been focusing on the failures of the Rajnath Singh Government to provide a clean and effective administration. Party strategists feel that the strong anti-incumbency sentiment among the people, if tapped, can turn the tide against the BJP. The party is of the opinion that the Sept 11 attacks in the US and the Dec 13 attack on Parliament are likely to be exploited by the BJP and measures like POTO would polarize the electorate and consolidate the Hindu vote bank. The BJP may well succeed in creating a communal divide which the Congress has to guard against. The anti-terrorism campaign may push the other important issues and negative factors against the ruling BJP into the background, it is feared. The Congress intends to counter the BJP drive by arguing that two of the party’s Prime Ministers-Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi-laid down their lives in fighting terrorism. The Congress is also hoping that far from being a winning card, the war hysteria being indulged in by the hawks in the BJP and other related outfits could actually backfire since the tough rhetoric is unlikely to be matched by tough action like crossing the LoC or strikes at suspected terrorist camps in PoK which people have been told to expect. The BJP cannot now argue that it did not get the cooperation of the opposition in taking any drastic action against Pakistan. Though the diplomatic measures that the Indian Government has taken have yielded some results like Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf admitting the presence of LeT or Jaish and arresting the outfits’ leaders and the freezing of their assets, they are not enough to swing the popular mood in UP which till now is negative to BJP’s wooing steps.



War and elections

This negative mood is sought to be countered by the environment that has been created in Kashmir. A mere 24 hours after he promised to go more than half-way to “resolve any issue, including Kashmir,” Prime Minister Vajpayee was threatening the use of ‘any and every weapon’ against Pakistan. Vajpayee obviously has in mind the State Assembly election that can crucially affect his government in New Delhi. So, war rhetoric, which showed signs of receding for much of last week, was back in full form in Lucknow, the PM’s home constituency. Addressing the Arya Prathinidhi sammelan, a right wing religious organisation, Vajpayee said India had the right to build “any weapon” in its self-defence and would use whichever weapon was available. His audience, which no doubt, understood ‘ any weapon’ to mean the nuclear weapon, lapped up the brave talk. After all, during the Kargil war, the RSS weekly Panchjanya had argued that there was little point in acquiring the nuclear weapon if it could not be used against the enemy.

As a leader of the BJP, political observers feel Vajpayee should have no difficulty alternating between acting hard and soft, as speaking with a forked tongue had long been a part of the party’s calculated strategy. In the party, the job used to be split between Home Minister Advani widely seen as a tough talking hawk and Vajpayee with his poet-statesman image. So if Advani aroused passions from his Rath Yatra (the religious tour that Advani took in a chariot, to launch the Ram temple movement), Vajpayee would soothe passions by publicly condoling the demolition of the Babri Masjid. In recent years, the roles have often been reversed and Vajpayee had himself switched between playing statesman. and rabble rouser. Witness his provocative statement about the Ram mandir (Ram temple) being a reflection of the “national sentiment” and the almost immediate retraction contained in his Musings from Kumarakom. The Vajpayee who spoke the language of insaniyat (humanism) to Kashmiri separatists and who invited Musharraf, the architect of Kargil war, to a dialogue in Agra, is also the Vajpayee who now seeks to intimidate Pakistan with his nuclear talk. Clearly, according to political observers, there is a lot of bravado here which is strictly for the consumption of UP voters.