|
Assembly Polls : Parties brace up for final bout |
 |
After exit poll projections that the National Democratic Alliance is giving a tough fight to the UPA constituents in both Bihar and Jharkhand, the Congress appears to have gone for a mid-course correction in its strategy for the final round of polling in the two states on February 23. The party has decided to retire its weak candidates in favour of the ruling Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) candidates with a high chance of winning. It has decided to concentrate only on 11 of the 33 seats it is contesting in the third and final round in Bihar. The Congress strategy earlier was to check the march of Lalu Prasad Yadav and his RJD in Bihar so that they would have to depend upon the Congress for forming a Government in Patna. But the exit poll projections, which showed that the RJD and the Opposition BJP-JDU combine are involved in a neck-and-neck fight in Bihar, made the Congress realise that the UPA infighting will give a new lease of life to the BJP and its allies in the NDA. Congress leaders in New Delhi conceded that the split in the secular vote helped the NDA considerably in the second phase of polling on February 15.
Based on the first two rounds of polling in Bihar, Star News has projected that while the RJD and Left parties would get 91 seats in Bihar, the BJP and allies would be close behind with 90. The channel gave just 9 seats to the Congress while Rambilas Paswan’s LJP was shown as getting 29 seats. Aaj Tak put the BJP and JDU combine ahead with 89 seats with 87 going to the RJD and Left parties. The channel projected that the LJP may win 27 seats while the Congress will have to remain content with 17. Both Star News and Aaj Tak gave about 24 seats to smaller parties and Independents.
The picture in the neighbouring Jharkhand was also not too comfortable for the Congress-Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) alliance. Star News predicted that both the Congress-JMM combine and the BJP-JDU alliance would get 36 seats each in the 81-member Assembly with nine seats going to the RJD and other parties. Aaj Tak predicted that while the Congress-JMM would emerge as the single largest combine with 34 seats, they would not enjoy a majority in the Assembly. The Channel gave 28 seats to the BJP-JDU alliance, seven to the RJD and 12 to other parties and Independents.
It was clear from the exit poll projections that no pre-election combine or alliance would be able to come to power in Bihar and Jharkhand and will have to get the support of other parties or groups to cobble a majority. The projections were a far cry from the prepoll confidence of the Congress that it will be able to form a government in Jharkhand in alliance with the JMM and substantially increase its numbers in the Bihar Assembly to be able to act as a major player in the state. Faced with the message from the exit polls, the Congress had no other go, but to change its strategy for the final phase of polling on February 23 with the objective of ensuring that a secular combine comes to power in both Bihar and Jharkhand.
It remains to be seen if the last minute course correction will have any major impact on the election outcome. The Congress voter who was enthused by the decision not to ally with Lalu Yadav may find the sudden turnabout unacceptable. Also the anti-RJD voter may look for an alternative option outside the socalled secular parties finding that the Congress is not sticking to its initial promise. Another factor is that Rambilas Paswan is not in agreement with the changed priorities of the Congress and is keeping up his tirade against Lalu Yadav and his RJD party.
In an indirect admission that the RJD-Left alliance in Bihar may not be in a position to form the next Government, veteran CPIM leader Jyoti Basu has appealed to the Congress to take the initiative in forming a secular government in the state. He told newspersons in Kolkata that the UPA model at the Centre could be followed in Bihar also to prevent the BJP from taking advantage of a hung assembly. He said the CPIM favours unity of secular parties in the post-poll scenario in Bihar. Another CPIM leader Sitaram Yechury held the Congress responsible for the division of secular votes in Bihar and Jharkhand. He said in Dhanbad : “Had we fought unitedly, NDA would have been routed from the two States as happened in the Lok Sabha elections.”
Meanwhile, a controversy has arisen over LJP leader Rambilas Paswan’s remark that he would prefer to have President’s Rule in Bihar in the event of a hung Assembly. Though Paswan later denied making the remark, the BJP-led NDA alliance termed it as an admission of defeat by the UPA and criticised the Congress and its allies for seeking to defeat the verdict of the people. The Congress, on its part, distanced itself from Paswan’s remark with the party spokesman saying that it would prefer an elected alternative to President’s Rule in Bihar even if there is a hung Assembly. Paswan later clarified his remark saying that he would himself be a chief-ministerial candidate after the elections.
The second phase of polling held in Bihar and Jharkhand on February 15 witnessed 50-52 per cent voter turnout in Bihar. In Jharkhand, the turnout was around 55 to 60 per cent. The polling was without large scale violence, but three people were killed in stray incidents in Bihar.
The NDA says that it is within striking distance of power in Bihar and Jharkhand because of the anti-Lalu wave and infighting in the UPA. BJP sources in New Delhi claimed that the NDA would touch 105 in the Bihar Assembly and make up the shortfall of 17 members with the help of Independents. BJP’s campaign incharge Amitabh Sinha said the party hopes to make the maximum gains in the last phase on February 23.
Left parties talk of Third Front
With the possibility of the Congress and RJD meeting with unexpected reverses in the Assembly elections, the Left parties have started talking about the possibility of a Third Front emerging. CPIM politburo member S. Ramachandran Pillai, CPI national executive member Sudharkar Reddy and Forward Bloc general secretary Debabrata Biswas talked of the possibility while taking part in a seminar in Pondicherry. This was the first time that all Left parties shared a platform over the issue of a Third Front. CPI national secretary D. Raja said if the Congress wants the Manmohan Singh Government to last its full term, it must adhere to the Common Minimum Programme.
In an interview published in The Tribune, CPIM leader and West Bengal Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharya said that the party is supporting the UPA Government because of political compulsions. This is because the CPIM cannot allow the BJP to return to power. Asked about a third forum, Bhattacharya said the CPIM is working in that direction. He said the Congress cannot be the permanent ally of the Left parties. He said like the BJP, the Congress has been anti-people and serving the interests of the rich. “We have to find out a third alternative with the country’s secular and democratic forces.”
Row over counting in Haryana
The Election Commission has advanced the counting of votes in the Haryana Assembly elections from February 27 to February 23. Polling in the State took place on February 3. The Election Commission says the rescheduling was felt necessary in view of the long gap between the polling and counting. It was also felt that the security forces could be utilised during counting in Bihar and Jharkhand.
The Election Commission decision was criticised by Haryana Chief Minister Om Prakash Chautala who said the Commission is acting as a tool of the Congress. He said the election rules provide that postal ballots have to be counted first and this would not be possible because of the change in the schedule of counting as they would be coming only by February 27. Responding to Chautala’s criticism, the Election Commission has directed the Returning Officers not to declare the results in any constituency where the number of postal ballot papers expected to be received back by February 27 might materially affect the result of the election. In such cases the result of the election could be declared after counting the postal ballot on February 27.
There are reports that the Chief Minister may move courts against the Election Commission’s decision to prepone the counting of votes in the State.
|
