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Assembly polls : Mixed signals from heavy polling in Punjab

	February 19, 2007

While exit polls conducted after the Punjab Assembly elections on Tuesday, Feb. 13, project a closely fought poll with the odds in favour of the NDA combine of Shiromani Akali Dal and the BJP, observers say that the record 76 per cent polling may result in the verdict going either way. While some analysts see the heaviest ever polling in Punjab as a reflection of the voters’ desire for change, others see it as a fight-back by the Congress against the resurgent Akali Dal.



Three exit polls, commissioned by NDTV, IBN 7, and Times Now, showed a narrow difference between the rival blocs.



NDTV gave BJP an edge at a seat prediction between 53-65, while projecting 45-55 for Congress. Times Now put Congress ahead at 53-61 and SAD-BJP just behind at 51-59. IBN 7 exit poll had Congress at 53-63 and SAD-BJP at 47-57.



But the exit poll conducted by Star News showed a clear win for SAD-BJP, giving the combine a vote share of 41% and Congress at 37%. In a bipolar contest this could translate into a large win for the Opposition.



The exit poll gives 60 seats to SAD-BJP and 48 to Congress. So, of the four exit polls, NDTV and Star News show SAD-BJP headed for a win, Times Now and IBN 7 projections favour the Congress.



The exit polls seem to indicate, if they are on the mark, that SAD-BJP has not been able to capitalise on the Amarinder government’s anti-incumbency to the extent that it did in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections.



It was also argued that the Congress had managed to undertake damage control since the setback in the general elections.



The high turnout remains intriguing. Traditionally, this is seen to go against the ruling party. In the hard-fought elections, it may also indicate that both sides have been able to get their voters to the booths.



Akalis certainly had paid particular attention to booth management in the last week of the campaign. The vote projections were also close. In fact, IBN 7 showed both camps locked at 41% vote each and a whopping 18% going to “others”.



As BJP had no rebels in the fray, any diversion of votes to “others” should be at the expense of the Congress. Times Now had 36% vote for the Congress and SAD-BJP just at the party’s heels at 35%.



The polling was held for 115 out of the 117 seats. Voting for two seats of Valtoha and Beas has been deferred by the Election Commission. The counting of votes will take place on February 27. In the previous Assembly elections in the state the total polling figure was 64% while the figure was 61.2% in the last parliamentary elections.





Highest ever voter turnout



According to figures provided by the State Chief Electoral Officer, a staggering 76 per cent of the 1.66 crore electorate exercised their franchise in the 115 constituencies where the polling was held. This is the highest ever in any Assembly election in the state surpassing 72 per cent in 1967. Mansa and Sangrur districts witnessed as many as 85 per cent voters turning out at the booths. Interestingly, 13 of the state’s 20 districts recorded higher voter turnout compared to the state average of 76 per cent.



An analysis of the voting pattern shows that in urban constituencies there was an average increase of 33 per cent in the voter turnout compared to the previous election held five years ago. In semi-urban and rural areas, the figure was 16 per cent and 14 per cent respectively.



Analysts point to a number of factors to explain exceptionally high voter turnout.



First, it appears that faced with a crumbling grievance redress mechanism, people preferred to use their democratic rights rather than resort to any other means to articulate their dissatisfaction. The lack of public response to election rallies addressed by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in the urban areas, provides credence to such arguments, which also include the element of resentment caused by the all-round increase in prices.



Secondly, for the first time in the history of the State, personality-driven contests replaced the traditional play of competing ideologies. While at the State level it was a no-holds-barred war between Capt. Amarinder Singh and Badal, similar electoral struggles were replicated in most constituencies as well.



Further, driven by stiff competition, the main political parties resorted to “cross support base” mobilisation. The Akali Dal, traditionally based among the rural peasantry, made sustained efforts to garner more votes from the Scheduled Castes and Backward Classes. Aided by its alliance partner BJP, it attempted to make inroads into urban votes.



The Congress, which has relied upon the SC and BC vote banks augmented by a sizeable number of urban Hindu voters, turned towards wooing the farmers, especially the Jat Sikhs in the Malwa region, considered to be an Akali bastion.





All out battle in Uttrakhand



With discouraging signs from Punjab, the Congress is making all out efforts in Uttrakhand so that it can retain power in the February 21 Assembly elections. Congress president Sonia Gandhi is reported to have taken serious note of factional fighting in Uttrakhand Congress and asked all groups to come together to prevent the boat from sinking. Already, all the chief-ministerial aspirants have been kept out of the elections, as none of them has been given the party ticket. The objective is that they should not start fighting right now on the issue of who is to be the Chief Minister if the party retains power. Sonia Gandhi is also reported to have told Chief Minister Narain Dutt Tiwari to be more visible in the election campaign. The state has a lot of Brahmin voters and N.D. Tiwari is thought to be capable of motivating them.



Both the Congress and the BJP are facing problems because of internal feuds and rebel candidates. The Uma Bharati factor is hurting the BJP as her party, the Bharatiya Janshakti Party has put up a number of candidates which is likely to cut into the BJP vote bank.