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Assembly polls : Congress survey predicts a rout

	April 03, 2006

An unpublicised survey of five election-bound states and union territory commissioned by the Congress is reported to have depressing tidings for the national party. Conducted last month by a Hyderabad-based professional group, the survey predicts severe setbacks for the party in the coming round of Assembly elections with a win expected only in the Union Territory of Pondicherry.



The survey confirms that the party stands no chance in West Bengal and will be hard put to finish ahead of Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamul Congress. It predicts a big win for the CPI(M)-led alliance in Kerala. In Assam, too, the prospects are not too sunny, with the poll forecasting that the Congress may fail to get a majority. As for Tamil Nadu, it says that Chief Minister Jayalalithaa has recovered considerable ground since her rout in the 2004 Lok Sabha polls to throw the battle wide open.



Sources in the party acknowledged that the findings, based on a representative sample of voter soundings, were a cause of serious concern. Worried over such gloomy prognosis and realising the impact that such a poor performance can have on the prestige of the UPA government at the Centre, party strategists have scrambled to repair the cracks highlighted by the pollsters.



They have decided to focus on Assam. The findings suggest that incumbency disadvantage has not been wiped out by AGP’s refusal to partner BJP. It, however, also suggests that the Congress has a fighting chance to breast the tape on its own strength.



No such chance in Kerala, though. The pollsters have predicted that the party’s hope of pulling off a repeat of 1977 when it retained power is not going to materialise.





Congress big-wigs campaign in Assam



Both Congress president Sonia Gandhi and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh campaigned in Assam last week to shore up support for the Tarun Gogoi Government in the state. To protect the party vote bank, Sonia Gandhi emphasised that providing safeguards and protection to the minorities is among the top priorities of the Congress-led UPA Government.



Addressing a rally in Kamrup district, Sonia Gandhi said since the Supreme Court verdict scrapping IM(DT) Act, the Manmohan Singh Government has begun the process to amend the Foreigners Act. She said it will be ensured that not even one person belonging to a minority community is harassed in the name of detecting foreigners and deporting them.



Observers say that Sonia Gandhi’s assurance is likely to have a positive impact for the Congress in the minority dominated areas of the state.





No sovereignty talks with ULFA : PM



The Prime Minister carried forward the process of wooing the minorities on the campaign trail in Assam on Saturday, April 1. Addressing a press conference in Guwahati, Dr. Manmohan Singh said while there would be no compromise on the issue of infiltration, it would be ensured that no genuine citizen of the state is harassed in the name of detection of foreigners.



Dr. Manmohan Singh urged misguided youth to shun violence and said, “The doors will be open for all those who shun violence.” “In this context two rounds of talks have already been held with certain groups of people (referring to the Peoples’ Consultative Group appointed by the ULFA) and we will accelerate the peace process,” the Prime Minister said.



He said the Foreigners Act is being amended to ensure that the citizens are not harassed. “You have a Prime Minister who is there to look after the interests of Assam and we want to ensure development in the state in an atmosphere of peace,” the Prime Minister said.



Asked whether the recommendation by the Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs (CCPA) superseded the Supreme Court’s ruling on the scrapping of the IMDT Act, the Prime Minister said the apex court’s judgement was final.



“It was, however, the government’s duty to ensure that the repeal of the Act does not cause any harassment of genuine citizens in the detection process. We have to give full protection to legitimate and genuine citizens”, he added.



Replying to a question on ULFA’s demand for sovereignty of Assam, Singh said negotiations would be held within the Constitutional framework.



“The ULFA may raise the issue during talks but that does not mean all issues are open for negotiations”, he said.



Addressing a rally at Sualkuchi, the Prime Minister said only the Congress can provide a stable government and bring about economic progress.



The people had given the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) the mandate to rule for two terms but the regional party failed to live up to their expectations.





No mid-term poll



In another significant statement, Dr. Manmohan Singh said the UPA government would last its full term and ruled out any possibility of a mid-term poll.



“I will make it clear that the UPA government will last its full term and there will be no mid-term poll,’’ he told newspersons.



Anticipating the mid-term poll, a theory bolstered by UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi’s sudden resignation from Parliament, Assam has emerged as the latest battleground for a possible third front where the left and democratic secular forces are coming together under one platform leaving both the UPA and NDA.



Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi expressed confidence that the ruling Congress would return to power with an absolute majority. While the AGP did not take any measure for the development of the State and the welfare of the people, the Congress Government had succeeded in ushering in a new era of development and peace. Gogoi ridiculed the AGP for roping-in former Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu to seek votes. At the AGP rally, Naidu appealed to the voters to defeat the Congress, and give the AGP their mandate.



BJP leaders, including Sushma Swaraj and Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, addressed rallies in other parts of the State. They appealed to the voters to give the party a chance as the State had already experienced Congress and AGP rule but their problems remained unsolved.





Assam having polls today



Polling is taking place today in Assam in the first phase for 65 of the 126 Assembly constituencies. Authorities used all modes of conveyance from motorcars to bullock carts, elephants and even country boats to carry officials and poll material. The second phase takes place on April 10.



“Everything is in place and most of the polling officials have reached the election booths,” Assam’s chief election officer J Prakash said.



Around 100 polling stations are located in inaccessible and rough terrain that can be reached either by trekking, riding on elephant back or crossing the small streams and rivers surrounding some areas by boats.





Left in a strong position in West Bengal



Observers say that the Left Front is in a very strong position in the Assembly elections in West Bengal. As the Front faces the five-phase election in April-May, it has the comfort of knowing that in 125 of the total 294 constituencies, it has never lost since 1977. The opposition’s task even appears more hopeless that the number of seats won by the Left Front at least five out of six times is as much as 185, which is close to a two-thirds majority.



Meanwhile, the CPI(M) has chosen Biman Bose as its state secretary to succeed Anil Biswas who died last month. He has the reputation of being a hardliner, but the party is reported to have told him that he has to adopt a liberal approach in the matter of economic development of the state. After his unanimous election as secretary of CPI(M)’s West Bengal unit, Biman Bose said that, “Those who oppose FDI in West Bengal do not understand the situation. We have never accepted FDI with any tags attached.”



The Chief Minister’s press briefing was significant on the occasion as Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee said, “Henceforth, the party will operate collectively.” Observers say the Chief Minister’s insistence on collective leadership is the first step towards tightening his grip on the state unit. CPI(M) leaders, however, say that Biman Bose’s choice was unanimous because he was the only leader accepted by both the hawks and doves.



In a significant statement, veteran CPI(M) leader and former Chief Minister Jyoti Basu said in Kolkata on Friday, March 31, that the battle in the coming Assembly elections is not just for the sake of the common masses of West Bengal, but those of the entire country. Speaking at a meeting held in memory of the departed leader Anil Biswas, Basu admitted that the CPI(M) had not been able to extend its influence to many other parts of the country. He said there was need to overcome our weaknesses.





LDF completes seat allocation in Kerala



In Kerala, the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) has finalised allocation of 129 seats among the front’s constituents. The remaining eleven seats in the state Assembly have been kept aside for allocation through bilateral discussions in the coming few days. There are reports of differences between the CPI(M) and other LDF allies over the CPI(M) claim to contest more seats this time. All the 11 seats that have been kept unallocated are those contested by the minor allies in the last Assembly elections held in 2001.



Even as the crisis in the CPI(M)’s Kerala unit on the question of the candidature of senior politburo member V.S. Achhuthanandan in the Assembly polls has blown over, observers say that the top party leaders are apprehensive of a severe post-poll fall out of the crisis. The party’s stand on fielding V.S. Achhuthanandan has caused considerable skepticism in the working class about the proletarian perspective of the central leadership. There are even party functionaries in the state who blame CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat, of being infirm under pressure from the reformist group in the state party unit led by secretary Pinaraya Vijayan.





Jayalalithaa to contest only from one constituency



In neighbouring Tamil Nadu, All India Anna-DMK supremo and Chief Minister J. Jayalalithaa is for the first time contesting from the one constituency - Andipatti - indicating a confidence in her poll campaign. In 2001, she had filed her nomination from Andipatti and several other constituencies, but was disqualified after being convicted in the Tansi case.



Jayalalithaa has dropped 72 sitting MLAs for the coming polls. Among those dropped is state Finance Minister C. Ponaiyanan, alleged to be involved in financial bungling.



In a surprise move, the All India Anna-DMK has also decided to context 54 seats in Kerala.



Jayalalithaa launched her election campaign for the May 8 Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu with a sharp attack on the Centre for raising prices of essential commodities. Addressing a public rally in Chennai, she accused union Ministers from the state of blocking all development schemes of her government.



Meanwhile, the Madras High Court has asked the Election Commission and the State Government to have discussions to sort out the dispute over the transfer of the Chennai police Commissioner, R. Nataraj. The High Court appears to have come to the view that the Election Commission’s power to order the transfer of an official is absolute only after the poll notification is issued.