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Assembly elections : Political parties gear up

	March 13, 2006

With Assembly elections in the four states of West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Assam, and the Union Territory of Pondicherry, approaching fast, political parties are gearing up to put their act together.



Meeting ahead of the elections, the Congress Working Committee on March 11 launched a frontal attack on the BJP for what it called its “crude and vulgar” attempt to communalise the Varanasi blasts. The CWC deplored the BJP’s proposed twin yatra and said: “from past experiences, one cannot, but express genuine apprehension that communal frenzy may follow such yatras.”



The CWC appealed to all “progressive and secular forces” to fight the move to communalise and polarise the polity. It also discussed the need to explain to people in general, and Muslims in particular, that the Indo-US nuclear deal was in the national interest. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who had earlier taken Parliament into confidence on the deal, elaborated on it at the CWC whose members have to take the message to the people.



The CWC statement did not refer to Iran or the Prophet cartoon row - which along with anti-Bush sentiments - fueled a Muslim upsurge, but sources said several members voiced concern about their impact, especially in poll-bound states.



The CWC statement seemed to douse speculation that the Congress was divided on the Indo-US nuclear agreement. It “congratulated” the Prime Minister on the deal which ends India’s nuclear apartheid, protects national strategic interests and meets the scientific community’s approval and “appreciated” his “meaningful” consultations with Sonia Gandhi.





Tamil Nadu : DMK concedes more seats to allies



Pushed to the back foot by MDMK’s sudden exit, the DMK has announced liberal allotment of seats for its allies in the Democratic Progressive Alliance (DPA) in the coming Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu. The party would be contesting only about 130 of the 234-Assembly seats, giving away about 45 per cent seats to the allies. The DMK has allotted 48 seats to the Congress, two more than in the last elections held in 2001. Thirteen seats have been given to the CPI(M) and ten to the CPI. Both the Left parties contested eight seats each in 2001. The PMK’s share is put at about 30, up from 27 in the last election. The Indian Union Muslim League will contest on three seats on the DMK symbol.



The DMK had initially hoped to contest 140 seats, but with the allies demanding a higher share, the party was forced into a corner. Shaken by MDMK chief Vaiko’s turnaround, the DMK did not want to risk any other ally deserting its front because of a few seats. That is why the Congress, which initially demanded 60 seats, but scaled it down to 50, was given 48.



The DMK which had urged all its allies to make sacrifices in seat-sharing, has ended up sacrificing the most. This could result in the party not contesting enough seats on its own in the 234-member Assembly to form a Government on its own.



Allies like the Congress which is sharing power at the Centre on DMK’s terms and conditions, are probably hoping for a similar arrangement in Tamil Nadu. DMK insiders, however, are confident that based on the numerical strength of the alliance, the party could still win 120 seats. “In case we fall short by a few seats, we can always rely on the Left parties which would like to extend support from outside.”



The DMK playing Santa Claus to its allies, has coincided with the Congress changing its tune on the MDMK continuing in the United Progressive Alliance at the Centre. Congress spokesperson Abhishek Singhvi, had on March 6 called DMK chief Karunanidhi’s demand for MDMK’s ouster from the UPA, his personal view. Parliamentary Affairs Minister Priya Ranjan Dasmunshi also said that Vaiko’s decision will not impact the UPA. However, the Congress spokesperson change his line and said on March 7 that a decision regarding the continuance or otherwise, of the MDMK in the Congress-led coalition would be taken by the UPA collectively. The MDMK has four members in the Lok Sabha and extends support to the UPA from outside.



On the campaign trail, Congress president Sonia Gandhi addressing public meetings in Tamil Nadu, called for ending what she called AIADMK misrule in the state. She said only the DMK-led DPA in the state would be able to ensure that every citizen in the state can live with dignity, security and pride.



Speaking at Kochi, in neighbouring Kerala, on March 5, Sonia Gandhi urged party legislators not to take the opposition Left Front in the state lightly and to work unitedly to ensure the United Democratic Front’s return to power.





No clarity on Karunakaran’s return to UDF



In the meantime, there is still no clarity on whether the Democratic Indira Congress led by former Congressman and Chief Minister Karunakaran will return to the UDF fold. Leaders of the Indian Union Muslim League, which appears to be working as a mediator, met Karunakaran in Thiruvananthapuram on Thursday, March 9, and held discussions with him for more than two hours.



According to information available, Karunakaran sought an honourable entry. The IUML leaders pointed out that the tough line adopted by the DIC president was making matters a bit difficult for them to work out an honourable formula. Karunakaran reportedly demanded at least 27 seats, his men had won in 2001. The IUML’s initiative is a continuation of its attempts to bring the DIC(K) to the UDF fold.



According to one study, there are at least 22 constituencies, mostly in Malabar, in which the DIC has got sizable supporters. Several formulas, including the possibility of an electoral understanding, are being considered. Finally, it would be the numbers that would clinch a deal.



On the other side of the fence, the situation in the Left Democratic Front on who will be the Chief Minister if it wins the Assembly elections, remains hazy. The CPI(M) politburo which met in New Delhi on March 10, did not take any decision on the Kerala leadership issue.



Among other things, the politburo blamed the UPA for being party to the Iran issue going to the UN Security Council as it had voted with the United States and EU 3 at the February meeting of the IAEA Board. But the party said there will be no withdrawal of support to the UPA as it wants to keep the BJP out of power.



In a television interview, CPI(M) politburo member Sitaram Yechury said that differences between the Left Front and the Congress-led UPA should not be seen as unnatural.



“There will be issues where there is conformity, there will be issues where there are disputes,” he said.



The CPI(M) Politburo member said that despite the differences with the ruling alliance, his party was getting a lot of things done for the people.



“Prime Minister Manmohan Singh accepted our concerns (over the nuclear deal), and that is a fact,” he said.



He said if the government chooses to ignore the demands of the Left it has to do at “its own peril”. “There are consequences they have to bear ... and they know it very well.”



“There is a definite growth in the distance in certain areas like foreign policy where there has been serious departure from what has been committed by the UPA in the national common minimum programme,” he said.



In West Bengal, the prospects of the Congress forging an alliance with the Trinamul Congress of Mamata Bannerjee are almost nil now. The Congress has formed an alliance called United Democratic Alliance comprising eight political parties. Apart from the Congress, the other constituents of the alliance are Saifuddin Chowdhary’s Party for Democratic Socialism, the Republican Party of India, Indian People’s Front, a breakaway group of the Forward Bloc, Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party, the United Communist Party of India, Shibu Soren’s Jharkhand Mukti Morcha and the Jharkhand Party (N).