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Assembly Elections : Left to be more assertive post-poll

	April 24, 2006

With exit polls conducted after the first two phases of Assembly elections in West Bengal, and the first phase in Kerala pointing to decisive gains for the Left, the CPI(M) led Communist parties are already rattling their sabres, saying that they will be going in for ‘greater intervention’ to ensure that the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government at the Centre implements the National Common Minimum Programme. They have also been making noises about building a third front or third alternative, which will be based on a different set of programmes and policies and in opposition to the Congress and the BJP.



CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat has said that while the results of the Assembly elections in the four states of West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Assam and the Union Territory of Pondicherry may not have a direct impact on the formation of such an alternative and bring in a climate of instability for the Manmohan Singh Government, the confrontation with the UPA and the BJP would continue. He said the Left has to play its role in initiating united struggles and movements of political parties which encompass the widest sections. Speaking in Kolkata on April 20, Karat said it is necessary to build up the strength of the Left in Kerala and West Bengal to reverse what he called the anti-people policies of the UPA Government. Asked if increased strength of the Left in the future could mean an “unwieldy pitch” for the UPA, the CPI(M) leader said, “I am not saying anything about withdrawing support. All that I am saying is that we want greater intervention.”



Earlier last week, Karat spelt out the CPI(M)’s thinking on a third alternative. In an interview with a news agency, he said the parties supporting the UPA from outside intend to step up their efforts for a third alternative after the Assembly elections. Pointing out that this was the right time to make an assessment of the performance of the Congress-led UPA Government which would be completing two years in office next month, Karat said that the Left would insist on implementation of those aspects of the CMP which were being ignored.



“We will continue to press for those aspects of the CMP which according to us would provide corrections to the wrong orientation of policies that have been continuing since the time of the NDA government,” he said without elaborating, but his statement could cause unease among reformers, including Finance Minister P. Chidambaram.



“The longevity of the UPA government is not dependent on us, but on how they perform and implement the CMP. The UPA Government has to maintain its popular support,” Karat said.



The CPI(M) leader wanted the government to recognise that it had no majority and therefore, “should carry everyone along. It has to realise that there is no national consensus on several national issues.”



He said that the Left had decided to raise policy matters like airport privatisation inside and outside Parliament and also with political parties which can be “either inside or outside” the UPA Government.



Speaking in a similar vein, CPI secretary D. Raja said in Thrissur on April 20 that the Left parties’ support to the Manmohan Singh Government should not be taken for granted. He said the survival of the UPA Government depends on its adherence to the Common Minimum Programme.



Asked about the reported statement of Finance Minister P. Chidambaram that in the current political scenario, no secular party can take any action that would bring down the UPA Government, Raja said that Chidambaram should know that the onus of ensuring the survival of the UPA Government rested with Congress leaders also. “Chidambaram may be secular, but that does not mean that he is pro-poor,” he said.



The CPI leader said the Left parties had extended support to the Congress-led UPA to achieve the twin purpose of keeping communal forces out of power and implementing pro-poor economic policies.



“However, the Congress now appears to be drifting away from the CMP and unilaterally trying to implement its own agenda, even though it talks about consensus. The Left would not tolerate this and will redefine its relations with the UPA after the Assembly polls”, Raja said.



CPI general secretary A. B. Bardhan, participating in a meet-the-press programme in Thiruvananthapuram, said victory in Kerala and West Bengal would increase the clout of the Left at the national level. Bardhan said the Left was offering support to the UPA to keep the communal forces out of power. But this did not mean that the Left would put up with all the unilateral decisions of the UPA government. The Congress would do well not to test the patience of the Left, he added.





Left support taken in national interest



Reacting to the Left sabre rattling, Congress president Sonia Gandhi has said that the UPA Government at the Centre was taking the support of the Left parties not to stay in power, but in the interests of the nation. Addressing rallies in West Bengal on April 20, she came down strongly on the performance of the Left Front Government in West Bengal. She said the Left Front Government has failed on various counts including improving the lot of the dalits, women and weaker sections of society.



“How much longer do they have to wait ?” Sonia Gandhi asked. “This is matter of great concern and regret. I feel sad.”



“It is true that the Congress-led UPA Government is taking help from the Left parties but this was not being done to hold on to the chair but in the interest of the nation and on the basis of the Common Minimum Programme,” Sonia Gandhi said at a rally in North 24 Parganas.



Addressing a congregation in Kolkata, she said the CMP had been drawn up to safeguard the interests of all sections of society. “It is because of this that the UPA Government had introduced programmes like the National Rural Employment Generation Programme. Many districts in West Bengal will be benefiting from it as will the rest of the country,” she said.





Left seeks Coordination Committee meeting after the polls



The Left parties have sought a meeting of the UPA-Left Coordination Committee after the Assembly polls to sort out differences on economic and foreign policy fronts. Veteran CPI(M) leader Jyoti Basu said in Kolkata on April 19, “We have sent a message to the Congress that we want the UPA-Left Coordination Committee to meet and talk seriously about the differences. At the meeting, we will speak clearly where we agree and where we disagree. Jyoti Basu said, “The Left parties do not want to be put in a position where the differences are such that it results in the fall of the Government and the BJP coming to power.”



Charging the UPA Government with violating the CMP on foreign and economic policy issues, the former West Bengal Chief Minister said the Government was following a pro-US foreign policy and going back on its promise in the CMP to have an independent policy. He said, “our Non-Aligned foreign policy has completely changed.”





Exit polls predict victory for Left in Kerala and West Bengal



Exit polls conducted after the first phase of polling in Kerala on Saturday, April 22, indicate that the CPI(M) led Left Democratic Front would secure about 49.5 per cent of the vote while the Congress-led United Democratic Front would have to remain content with 40.8. per cent. The India Vision-AC Nielson exit poll predicts that the LDF may get 39 of the 59 seats for which elections were held in the first phase. The UDF may get 19 seats while one seat may go to other parties. The exit poll marks a swing of 9 per cent in favour of the LDF. The UDF is losing 6.9 per cent vote. In the last elections held in 2001, the UDF got 45 out of 59 seats. With the UDF tally coming down to 19 this time, the Congress-led front will lose 26 seats in the first phase of polling itself.



On the other hand, the LDF, which could get only 14 seats in 2001, is expected to capture 39 seats - an increase of 25 seats.

The LDF can get a clear majority if it can repeat the performance of the last Assembly polls in the central and northern parts of the State.



The LDF has a clear upper hand both in rural and urban areas as well as among the male and female voters.



In the urban areas, 45.7 per cent of people are supporting the LDF, while only 40.1 per cent support the UDF. In the rural areas, the LDF has the support of 50.2 per cent of voters, while the UDF has the support of 40.9 per cent.



In West Bengal, exit polls conducted after the first two phases of polling in 111 constituencies indicate a virtual sweep for the Left Front. According to the exit polls conducted by a local television channel Star Ananda, the Left Front may win 50 out of the 66 seats figuring in the second phase of polling on Saturday, April 20. The channel has predicted that the Left Front would bag 42 of the 45 seats involved in the first phase held on Monday, April 17.



Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamul Congress is expected to win one seat in the first phase and 12 in the second phase. The Congress tally is put at 1 in the first phase and 3 in the second phase. An Independent is also expected to win in the first phase.



The polling in the first two phases in West Bengal was marked by a high turn out despite Naxalite threats in areas affected by their activities. Another significant feature of the polling was that there were no serious incidents of violence, thanks to the extra-ordinary measures taken by the Election Commission and the deployment of central paramilitary forces for the smooth conduct of the polls. The voter turn out is put at about 74 per cent in the second phase while it was 81 per cent in the first phase.



Observers say that the polling in West Bengal has been the cleanest and most peaceful ever held in the state. Even Left leaders who have their own reasons to celebrate given the high turnout in their strongholds were generous in giving the Election Commission its due. After the first phase of elections, there were no reports of any violence, booth capturing or even booth jamming from the 45 Assembly seats spread over three districts of West Midnapore, Bankura and Purulia. Fears of Maoist strikes in the districts which are Naxal infested proved to be unfounded.





Rae Bareli by-poll : Unwilling Vinay Katiyar to fight Sonia



Congress President Sonia Gandhi filed her nomination papers for the byelection to the Lok Sabha from Rae Bareli on April 17. She was flanked by her family members, son Rahul Gandhi, daughter Priyanka and son-in-Law Robert Vadra when she filed her papers in Rae Bareli. Senior Congress leaders and several Union Ministers were also present on the occasion.



Observers say that Sonia Gandhi is set for a cakewalk in Rae Bareli as there is virtually no serious opponent in the fray. The BJP after searching for a long time has finally forced an unwilling Vinay Katiyar to accept the party nomination to fight Congress president Sonia Gandhi in the byelection. This came after BJP president Rajnath Singh put his foot down and asked Katiyar to fight the byelection. Katiyar gave in to party pressure on April 18 after having refused to oblige for several days. Rajnath Singh said later the BJP would put up a serious fight and it would not be a walk over as some people imagine. Sources said Katiyar accepted the nomination after the party promised him that it would not be a lone battle for him and all senior leaders of the party would join his campaign.



Reports say that earlier the BJP had sent feelers to Hema Malini and Smriti Irani to fight the byelection, but they politely refused.



The Samajwadi Party, the ruling party in the state, has put up a political greenhorn Raj Kumar Chaudhary to fight Sonia Gandhi in Rae Bareli. His sole claim to fame is that he happens to be Samajwadi Party MP Beni Prasad Verma’s son-in-law. Uma Bharti who earlier broke away from the BJP has put up an unknown Prabha Singh to fight Sonia Gandhi. Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party has decided not to put up any candidate in the byelection.



In another setback for the BJP, the Janata Dal United, now headed by Sharad Yadav has rejected its request to support Vinay Katiyar in the Rae Bareli by-election.