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Assembly Elections : Exit polls indicate surprises

	February 07, 2005

Exit polls conducted after the first phase of the Assembly elections in Bihar and Jharkhand indicate that the voters may have some surprises for the political parties vying to gain their favour. In Haryana, however, where the polling for all the 90 seats is over, the voters appear to be sending a signal that the ruling Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) Government headed by Chief Minister Om Prakash Chautala is on the way out, and the Congress will regain power with a sizeable margin.



In Bihar, the exit polls conducted by various news organisations indicate that the ruling Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) has taken a beating in the first phase of polling held for 64 of the total 243 seats of the Assembly. The exit poll conducted by Zee News forecast that the RJD may win only 17 of the 64 seats. But Star News gives RJD 28 seats while another news channel Aaj Tak gives the party 26 seats. Most observers say that the RJD is facing a tricky situation because of the anti-incumbency factor and failure to maintain its hold over the Muslim-Yadav vote bank. It appears that the failure to work out a pre-poll effective alliance with the Congress and Rambilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) has split the Muslim community down the middle and Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD no longer has the advantage of the solid support of the minority community. The public perception of the RJD’s “misrule” under the Chief Ministership of Lalu Prasad Yadav and his wife, Rabri Devi, has also alienated the voters. The belief that Lalu and his kith and kin have used power only to enrich themselves and not to serve the people, may cost the RJD dear.



In Jharkhand also, it may not be a cakewalk for the Congress-Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) alliance, if the exit polls conducted after the first phase of polling in 24 of the total 81 Assembly seats, are to be believed. It appears to be a neck-and-neck fight with the BJP-JDU combine. In fact, Star News has predicted that the BJP-JDU alliance may get 14 of the 24 seats while the Congress-JMM may get only six seats. Zee News and Aaj take have given 11 seats to the Congress-JMM while the BJP-led alliance may get 4 to 7 seats. Of course, one factor in the first phase was that the polling was in areas which are generally recognised as strongholds of the BJP. But all indications are that the BJP and the JDU are putting up a much stronger fight than they were given the credit for. At best, the Congress-JMM may emerge as the single largest combine in the Assembly, but fall short of a clear majority.

In Haryana, all the news channels which conducted exit polls, are unanimous that the Congress will regain power with clear, almost two-thirds majority in the 90-member Assembly. The ruling INLD and BJP will have to fight for the second spot in the state.

A remarkable feature of the Assembly elections in all the three states was the large voter turn out. Haryana recorded a turn out of 65 per cent, while Bihar saw 52 to 55 per cent of the electorate exercising its franchise. In Jharkhand, about 45 per cent voters came out despite threats and violence by Naxalite groups. There was violence also in some parts of Bihar and in one of the most serious incidents, three people were killed in an attack by Naxalites in Gaya district. There were several incidents of bomb explosions to disrupt the polling process.



Congress looking at post-poll scenario

There are reports that the Congress has started looking at the post-poll scenario and arrangements in the light of the results of the exit polls after the first phase. In Haryana, the party is confident of romping home to a comfortable victory. It is hopeful that even in Bihar and Jharkhand, “secular governments” will assume office after the polls. Party spokesperson Abhishek Singhvi, reacting to the exit polls, said that Jharkhand would have a Government formed by the pre-poll allies, the Congress and the JMM. About Bihar, he said the state will have a post-poll secular alliance. “The common factor in all three states is that they will not suffer a BJP or a BJP-led government,” Abhishek Singhvi said.

While claiming that secular governments would be formed in Bihar and Jharkhand, Singhvi refrained from naming the parties which would be part of this secular alliance. Given that the RJD has strained relations with both the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and JMM, the Congress will be faced with the almost impossible task of bringing them together in the post-poll scenario.

In case of a fractured mandate in the two states, the formation of a secular alliance will mean bringing the LJP on board along with the RJD in Bihar and getting the RJD and the JMM to work together in Jharkhand.

The Congress will have to take on this onerous responsibility of ensuring that LJP’s Rambilas Paswan and JMM’s Shibu Soren, are not tempted to cross over to the NDA camp because of their antipathy to RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav. Its failure to keep the UPA partners together will have ramifications not just in the states, but also at the Centre.

The Congress appears to be keeping its options open in case the RJD gets a big jolt in the Bihar elections. Asked about the Congress approaching the JDU for power-sharing, party spokesperson Abhishek Singhvi significantly said: “Politics is all about possibilities.” Rambilas Paswan said that his party together with the Congress is confident of forming the next government in Bihar. Paswan had explored the JDU role in putting together a new government without the RJD and the BJP even during the seat-sharing talks before the elections. Paswan and JDU leader Nitish Kumar had held a few rounds of talks to forge an alliance to oust the RJD. But a statement by BJP leader Sushil Modi said the dialogue had the endorsement of his party, put an end to the talks.



BJP hopes alive

The BJP, on the other hand, appears to be believing that it could still be in a position to manoeuvre a majority in some of the states going to the polls with the help of non-National Democratic Alliance parties. The exit poll prediction that the RJD may not have done as well as earlier expected, has encouraged the BJP further.

With polling over in all of Haryana and the first phase completed in Bihar and Jharkhand, some quick calculations have been made by BJP leaders. The party will be ready to forget the bitterness of past relations with the Indian National Lok Dal of Om Prakash Chautala in Haryana if by some miracle the Congress failed to get a majority; in Bihar it is more than willing to welcome back into the NDA fold the Lok Janshakti Party of Rambilas Paswan and offer him the Chief Ministership; and in Jharkhand it is hoping that JMM’s Shibu Soren will be ready to turn to whoever readily agrees to make him Chief Minister.

“Normally, the BJP projects a chief ministerial candidate during Assembly polls, but this time, especially in Bihar and Jharkhand we did not for the simple reason that the positions will be on offer to Paswan and Soren if the post-election result arithmetic allows,” a party leader said.

In Bihar, the BJP-JDU alliance is hoping to get more than 80 seats it thought it would get when the campaign first began. The return of two kidnapped school children to their parents, one in Patna and the other in Bhagalpur, may have again dampened Opposition spirits, but some party leaders feel that the alliance could still come near the hundred mark. “If that were to happen and we are in a position to touch the majority mark of 122, with the addition of Paswan’s share of seats, we are certain to offer to make him Chief Minister and that is the reason the party did not declare JDU leader Nitish Kumar as the chief ministerial candidate of the alliance,” said a party leader. The BJP is also hoping that if the Rashtriya Janata Dal, the Congress and the Left together do not get a majority, Paswan may prefer to cross to its side rather than support a RJD-led government although Paswan has himself repeatedly stated that he will not go with the JDU as long as it has an alliance with the BJP.

As for Jharkhand, the calculation is simple; the BJP is certainly not expecting to win a clear majority, but is hoping to entice the JMM by being the first to offer Chief Ministership to Soren notwithstanding all the political noise made about him being “tainted.