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Assam : Security forces, ULFA back to the bullet

	November 20, 2006

Government’s efforts to solve the insurgency problem in the north-eastern State of Assam through negotiations with one of the major extremist outfits, the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA), are finally dead, and the two sides are now back to the bullet.



The militant group’s official bulletin, Swadhinata (Freedom), accused Delhi of making a “fraudulent” attempt to show that it is interested in reviving the peace process.



ULFA asked Delhi to send a formal proposal for talks through the People’s Consultative Group, which voluntarily backed out of the negotiations only recently, if it wanted the process to be successful. The outfit demanded a commitment from the government to make “restoration of sovereignty of Asom” the core issue on the talks agenda, the demand which no government worth the name would accept.



On Monday, Nov. 13, National Security Adviser M.K. Narayanan told Indra Goswami and Phukan, the two prime negotiators in the defunct peace process, that ULFA would have to set a timeframe for “direct talks” with the government and call a halt to its acts of violence across Assam.



Goswami, however, blamed “lack of transparency” as one of the main reasons for the peace process not moving forward. She said she had thought the issue of sovereignty was resolved when the ULFA constituted the PCG following the Centre’s assurance to discuss all the core issues.



“Both sides are not transparent and this has made things difficult.” Thanking ULFA for the “honour and respect” bestowed on her, Goswami said she was ready to offer any help for resolution of the problem.





ULFA resorts to violence : Oil & gas lines damaged



Suspected ULFA militants struck in the oilfields of Upper Assam, blowing up a crude oil pipeline last week after sabotaging a gas supply network. The oil pipeline, which cuts through Rajgarh tea estate, carries crude from the Hapjan oil collecting station of OIL to Duliajan. The pipeline belongs to state owned Indian Oil.



Supply of piped domestic and commercial gas to the twin districts of Dibrugarh and Tinsukia was disrupted after militants damaged an Assam Gas Company Ltd pipeline.



Intelligence agencies had earlier warned security forces of a series of attacks by ULFA on oil installations, rail tracks, BSNL complexes and government-owned institutions.





ISI leash on ULFA: Gogoi



Blaming squarely the ULFA for the collapse of the peace process, Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi said on Nov. 18 that ULFA failed to come for the talks as it is difficult for its leaders holed up in Bangladesh to come out of the clutches of Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI).



Gogoi said the Centre has always believed that it would be very difficult for ULFA leaders Paresh Barua and Arabinda Rajkhowa to attend direct talks with the government owing to this problem. Despite the pessimism, it was he who asked the Centre to keep trying for talks, Gogoi claimed.



Sources close to the Chief Minister said the reported inability of the ULFA leaders to return home was also conveyed to facilitator Indra Goswami.



“But we wanted to, and still want to, keep the door for peace talks open,” said a source close to the Chief Minister.



Gogoi advised the outfit to open channels of communication directly with South Block or through him (as facilitator) but demanded that it should express its demand in black and white.



Army sees serious ‘jihadi’ threat



Meanwhile, according to Army sources, a spurt in the activities of jihadi groups in the state has become a major cause of concern for the security forces.



Commander of the Army’s 107 Mountain Brigade, Brig. Kanwaljit Singh, described the threat from Islamic fundamentalists to the state as a real and serious one, particularly in the Lower Assam districts. The 107 Mountain Brigade is responsible for counter-insurgency operations in Kamrup, Nalbari, Baksa and Barpeta districts of the state.



According to Army intelligence officials, improvised explosive devices (IEDs) were being brought by militants of the Muslim United Liberation Tigers of Assam (Multa) from Khoirabari in Darrang district with the intention of carrying out subversive activities.



The Special Branch of Assam police had recently sounded an alert about the possibility of jihadi strikes in the state. The alert was issued on the basis of intelligence inputs that a six-member group of Islamic fundamentalists had entered the state with plans to carry out massive strikes.



Apart from Multa, jihadi outfits like Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), Harkat-ul-Jehad-e-Islami (HuJI) and Jamat-ul-Mujhideen have reportedly made significant inroads into certain minority-dominated pockets of the state, particularly those where suspected migrants from Bangladesh have a sizeable presence.





ULFA shadow over National Games



The banned ULFA has issued an “appeal” to sportspersons to stay away from the National Games, saying it was being organised by “occupational forces” who are not serious about the resolution of the “Indo-Asom conflict”.



In an email today, ULFA chairman Arabinda Rajkhowa said, civilians were being killed, raped and harassed by the armed forces everyday, and considering the repressive measures adopted by the Indian government, the outfit would not allow the event to be organised in Assam.



The militant group had opposed the Games earlier too. But last week’s ‘appeal’ assumes significance against the backdrop of a meeting of the Unified Command’s operations group to “synergise” its movements with Republic Day, the ULFA Protest Day and the Games around the corner.



The ULFA has been carrying out strikes in the run-up to Protest Day on November 27, which marks the Army’s launch of Operation Bajrang in 1990 to rein in the rebels.



Triggering terror just before the mega event will give the militants just the mileage they are looking for, sources said. National Games Secretariat officials could not be contacted for comment. Assam Olympic Association secretary Mukut Medhi said, “From what I have heard, it (the ULFA appeal) is a serious development”.





Focus on urban terror



According to reports, ULFA has altered its training module and cadre profile to focus on urban terrorism. With security forces in hot pursuit and the strength of its ranks diminishing, the militant group has switched over from “difficult and risky” military combat to the more damaging but easy-to-execute jihadi-type operations in urban areas.



A senior police official said ULFA has been left with only about 800 “hardcore” members. This has apparently made the outfit wary about exposing its core strike group to direct military confrontation.



Any militant group requires a permanent base spread over a large uninhabited area to train its members in guerrilla warfare. ULFA has not been able to put recruits through such training since its camps in Bhutan were demolished during Operation All Clear in 2003, the official pointed out.



ULFA now sends batches of recruits for a crash course in handling explosives at its transit bases in the jungles of Arunachal Pradesh, the Garo Hills of Meghalaya and the border areas of Bhutan. This change in strategy is borne out by the fact that ULFA militants have triggered as many as 100 blasts this year alone.



The figure was 121 in 2005 and 103 in 2004. In stark contrast, just 37 ULFA-triggered explosions occurred in 2002 and 2003.



The militant outfit has also changed the profile of its cadre. The new generation of ULFA members are not of the type who formed the core group of the outfit till the late nineties. “Most of the new cadre are school dropouts and continue to do petty jobs in urban and semi-urban areas instead of going underground. They could be working as drivers, bus handymen or conductors, rickshaw-pullers, helpers, etc,” the police official said.



The presence of “overground” cadre means the militant group can get away with just about any act of subversion in urban areas. “After conducting an operation, militants resume their normal activities in the town or city where they are based, making it difficult for us to detect them. They do not figure in any database of militants,” the police official said.





Bangladesh, major source of arms and ammunition



Bangladesh continues to be a major source of arms and ammunition for militant groups active in Assam. According to Army sources, most of the rebel outfits, including ULFA, are smuggling arms and ammunition into the state from Bangladesh through Meghalaya. He added that necessary steps were being taken to plug this route.





Bhutan factor



Reports also indicate that Bhutan is again becoming the breeding ground for ULFA militants, although Bhutan denies their presence in its territory after they were uprooted from the Himalayan Kingdom in a major military operation in December 2003. The state government has pleaded with the Centre to ensure that Bhutan does not become a haven for ULFA again.



A senior official said “preventive action” must be taken before the militant group entrenches itself in that country.



Union Home Secretary V.K. Duggal was briefed about ULFA’s resurgence in Bhutan during his recent visit to the state.



Interrogation of some arrested ULFA militants has revealed that the outfit is using the Himalayan kingdom as a temporary base and for training. A joint operation by police teams from Assam and Bhutan led to the discovery of a rocket and a used rocket shell in a forest where ULFA recruits underwent training less than a year after Operation All Clear.