|
Andhra Pradesh : Heading for polls ? |
 |
The southern state of Andhra Pradesh too has got into the news for possible early assembly elections. Ever since the abortive attack on Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu by Naxalites and the sympathy wave generated in its aftermath, there has been speculation of early polls.
According to BJP sources, during a recent meeting in Hyderabad between Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani, BJP president Venkaiah Naidu and Chandrababu Naidu, the BJP proposed simultaneous polls to Parliament and the Andhra Pradesh Assembly in May. It was pointed out to Chandrababu Naidu that holding of Assembly and parliamentary elections simultaneously would help the prospects of both the parties. But Chandrababu Naidu was reportedly firm on early Andhra Assembly polls, which meant delinking from parliamentary elections.
The BJP would remain with the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) for Andhra Assembly elections. It wants to ensure that Naidu also remained with the BJP during the Lok Sabha polls, which is why it favoured synchronising Assembly and Parliament polls. The apprehension expressed by the BJP leaders is that if the two elections are delinked, with parliamentary polls being held at a later date, it would work to the disadvantage of the BJP.
Naidu sees an advantage in early polls because he is keen to cash in on the groundswell of sympathy for the TDP Chief Minister, in the wake of assassination attempt in the pilgrim town of Tirupati in Andhra Pradesh on October 1. Naidu apparently fears that if simultaneous polls are held, the anti-incumbency factor against the BJP-led NDA government at the Centre would considerably dilute his own appeal in the Assembly elections.
At present, the BJP focus is on strengthening its base in Andhra Pradesh, to prepare for parliamentary elections, even if it means going it alone later.
Until a couple of months ago, the odds seemed stacked against the TDP. The anti-incumbency factor was much talked about. There was reported to be a widespread feeling, especially in the Andhra Pradesh countryside, that the TDP leader’s obsession with economic reforms had led to a spiralling of prices, unemployment and other ill effects, and that the hyper-concentration on Information Technology did not touch their lives. The perception within the TDP at least is that this ground situation has been transformed.
An early Assembly election divorced from a highly uncertain Lok Sabha contest makes compelling sense to the ruling TDP in the state. It sees its best chance in keeping the focus on State issues - and what Naidu can point as his “developmental achievements”. His party might have consciously kept out of the National Democratic Alliance and stayed away from the Central Government, but the identification of the TDP as the Bharatiya Janata Party’s most important ally is strong. By going in for a sudden, separate poll, the TDP hopes to improve its chances with minority voters who might see the stakes rather differently in a general election.
The revision of the electoral rolls, which will begin soon and be completed by January 20, 2004 is a significant factor. It will bring in an army of earnest first-time voters whose preferences and expectations are completely unknown. For all Naidu’s calculations, the coming Assembly contest in South India’s largest State looks, at this stage, tight.
Challenges for Congress in the South
The possibility of holding early Assembly elections in Andhra Pradesh and an unstable Kerala, where the Antony Ministry is in deep trouble, have added to the headache of the Congress, which at the moment is trying hard to retain the four northern states. The Andhra Pradesh assembly was elected in 1999, at the same time as the current Lok Sabha, and that its term does not expire until well into 2004. As for Kerala, it went to the polls in 2001, which means that the Assembly still has half its term to run.
According to observers, the challenge from the Congress, which has been out of power in the State since December 1994, will be tough and resourceful. To note that the Congress in Andhra Pradesh is faction-ridden is not to say anything new. But in addition to the strong anti-incumbency factor it detects, the party will be banking on the feel-good force it hopes will be with it following possible triumphs in the coming round of Assembly elections in five States. It has a big stake in closing ranks, working out clear and potent campaign themes, and mobilising all its resources to neutralise Naidu’s advantages.
The Congress will no doubt dwell heavily on the theme that eight years of Chandrababu Naidu’s rule has brought more hype than hope to the lives of millions of ordinary people in the State, especially the rural poor. It is bound to bring to the fore the issues of the stamp paper scam, regional imbalances in development, and the travails of cotton and tobacco farmers, especially the suicides.
In Kerala, the Karunakaran camp is rumoured to be planning- with Left Democratic Front support- to move a motion against the speaker of the State Assembly as its opening gambit. Chief Minister A.K. Antony has decided to take the initiative by demanding a Vote of Confidence in the assembly. Amazingly, the Congress leadership has proved to be utterly useless during this crisis. In a last ditch attempt, the party is falling on the feet of the Muslim League, begging it not to desert the United Democratic Front.
Antony has charged the CPI(M) with helping the BJP to destabilise his government in the state. He also alleged that the CPI(M) politburo has been backing these moves. After a meeting with Congress president Sonia Gandhi, Antony ridiculed the CPI(M) claim that it stands for secularism and is committed to fight the BJP. Alleging that the CPI(M) has indulged in horse-trading to topple his government, the Kerala chief minister warned that the Left would have to pay for this. It would have to be answerable to other secular forces, he added.
Political observers point out if the Antony Ministry is pulled down, one cannot be sure if rebel Congress leader Karunakaran and the CPI(M) can get together to form a stable government. The Congress in that case should be set for facing the electorate and explain why the Congress fell flat on its face midway in its five-year term, unable to ensure stability even after securing a majority.
With Tamil Nadu firmly in the grip of AIADMK chief Jayalalithaa, the Congress has to set its house in order in the crucial southern states of Andhra Pradesh and Kerala.
|
