No doubt under intense US pressure brought to bear by Senator John
Kerry, Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai has accepted a run-off in the Presidential election which he had marginally won allegedly by fraudulent means, as proved by a probe by the UN-backed Complaints Commission. The run-off will be between Karzai, a Pashtun and former Foreign Minister, Abdullah Abdullah, an ethnic Tajik.
Observers in India say the question is not who will win the run-off, but will it help in progress towards the establishment of peace, will it cut losses of American and NATO troops, will it end the widespread corruption in the Government, and will it repose faith of the people in general about the capability of the Government to deliver on its promises of improving law and order.
These issues are equally relevant to India as they are to the US and to the people of Afghanistan. India has committed more than a billion dollars worth of financial assistance in Afghanistan. It is not just the money, but Afghanistan is a country where India and Pakistan are fighting their strategic wars. India appears to have the upper hand with Pakistan trying its best to unsettle Indian (e.g. attacks on the Indian Embassy in Kabul) interests. The present Afghan Government is pro-India. The new government’s attitude would need to be watched. But for the present observers would be watching the new developments.
The fact is that the Americans have lost faith in Karzai, whose administration is being undermined by charges of corruption and involvement in drug dealing. Behind him are two powerful warlords: former Communist secret police chief Mohammed Fahim, a Tajik, and the recently returned from exile Uzbek warlord, Rashid Dostam. These two pillars of the old Afghan Communist regime were arch henchmen of the former Soviet occupiers and notorious war criminals. The NEW YORK TIMES carried a front-page headline recently, “Karzai using rift with US to gain favour”. The article said that Obama officials were growing disenchanted with Afghan President Karzai whose supporters stuffed ballot boxes in the election while he himself struck deals with accused drug dealers and warlords, one of whom is his brother, for political gain. He turned the anger against the US among the Afghan people to his own advantage portraying himself at home as the only political candidate willing to stand up to the dictates of the United States. The critics of Obama say the ultimate goal of his administration should be to have a government in Kabul that can effectively run the country, protect its own population and defeat the Taliban. There is nothing even remotely resembling this with Karzai in power. The war is going badly and becoming deadlier. July and August were the two worst months for US troops since the American invasion in October 2001.
The Obama Administration on March 27 articulated the new US strategy of Af-Pak, which aims at retrieving Afghanistan and Pakistan from the failures that pose a threat to US security interests. The assessment is that due to the failure of earlier US policies, the Afghan Taliban, Pakistani Taliban, Al-Qaeda and Punjab terrorist groups have come closer, creating disastrous consequences for both Pakistan and Afghanistan as well as India. Much of the success of the Obama policy, however, depends on the cooperation and the ability of the leadership in Kabul.
President Obama has put off his decision on the US commander in Kabul, Gen. Stanley McChrystal’s report and his demand for 40 thousand more troops, until after the election in Afghanistan. Obama initially agreed to an increase of 21,000 to take the troop strength to 68,000. Observers feel the moment of decision has arrived. The need for more American troops in Afghanistan is enhanced by the arguments being put forward by American conservatives that, “if we pull out, we’ll hand over Afghanistan back to the Islamic militants who allowed it to become a haven for al-Queda.” The counter-argument is that the British and the Soviets discovered before Americans came on the scene that it is almost impossible to tame the Afghans.
But, Obama’s Vice President Joe Biden has been a voice of reason, warning the Administration of the dangers of increasing US military involvement in Afghanistan. Biden’s supporters say, the additional troops would be heading into a no-win situation. They will be fighting on behalf of an incompetent and hopelessly corrupt government in Afghanistan. They will be fighting and dying in a particularly unforgiving environment. The US has already lost more than 5000 troops in Iraq and Afghanistan and spent a trillion or so dollars. The longer they stay in Afghanistan, the more resentful the local population will become about their presence and the more resentful the American public will become about their involvement in a war that seems to have no end. Observers Cite the analogy of President Lyndon Johnson who made the mistake of not listening to the Joe Bidens of his day when he was fighting the war in Vietnam.
