Afghanistan had its second-ever direct poll to elect a new President on Aug 20. This however, is unlikely to bring peace in the country for a variety of reasons. The Taliban militants had given a call for a boycott and, threatened those who voted to cut their fingers if an indelible ink showed that they had exercised their franchise [fingers of at least two people were chopped]. President Hamid Karzai gave his half brother, Ahmad Wali Karzai the job of cutting deals with the various warlords and win Taliban commanders in his favour in the Pashtun-inhabited South, which was crucial to his victory. Lastly, the victory of a Pashtun is likely to cause a greater divide between the Pashtuns and the Tajiks if election fraud is alleged or proved. The latter is already complaining denial of a slice in political power although the Northern Alliance of Ahmed Shah Masood, based in the Panjshir Valley, had contributed to the US military action hugely to fight off the Taliban when the Pashtun leaders had taken shelter in the safe haven of Pakistan's tribal region. However. after the rout of the Taliban, Washington pushed Karzai for the Presidency to give a Pashtun face to the regime, although a clique of Tajik officers, known as the Panjshiris, took control of the key security posts with American backing.
Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, an eye specialist and former Foreign Minister, is pitted against the President in the electoral battle. He has already accused Karzai of fraudulent practices to push the election in his favour. If he persists with the charge, bad blood between the Pashtuns and the Tajiks will not be good for the peace and stability of the country and the Taliban could exploit it to engulf the country into another era of violence. The passions between the two sides may run high if a run-off takes place in case none of the two major candidates wins more than the required 50 per cent vote. Pre-poll projections showed that Karzai would win 45 per cent of the rates polled, short of avoiding a run-off.
Dr. Abdullah may cash in on the poor record of administration of Karzai and the company of warlords that he keeps. Many Afghans are disenchanted with Karzai who has ruled since America bombed the Taliban from power in 2001.The slow pace of economic recovery and the delivery of services accompanied by credible evidence of wastage of resources and corruption have created strong resentment against the incumbent regime.
Karzai is relying for his victory on the absence of a popular Pashtun rival and deals brokered with non-Pashtun toughs. These include Mohammad Muhaqea, the main Hazara strongman, Rashid Dostum, a feared Uzbek warlord, who flew in from his exile in Turkey to campaign in his favour. The last election in 2004 showed that Dostum polled 10 per cent of the votes. Further Karzai has won over the former Tajik warlord, Mohammed Fahim, by making him a running mate for Vice Presidency. Karzai also enlisted as an adviser Abdul Rasul Sayyaf, an Islamist militant who welcomed Osama bin Laden to Afghanistan in 1996. These choices have, however, not delighted the already disaffected donors who prop up Karzai's corrupt regime. "The Guardian" newspaper of Britain reported that Hamid Karzai's younger brother, Ahmed Wali Karzai, apparently brokered a series of secret deals with Taliban commanders in southern Afghanistan to try to ensure that voting would take place in election.
Dr. Abdullah has a mixed Pashtun-Tajik blood, but projecting himself as the Tajik leader, he was seen cashing in on the growing alienation of the country's largest ethnic group, the Pashtun tribes, who make up an estimated 42 per cent of the population with the Tajiks who constitute only about 24 per cent of the population. Election observers have already said, the next round that is run-off, between Karzai and Dr. Abdullah who draws support from Tajiks in the north, risked dividing the country along ethnic lines and that disagreement over the outcome could lead to civil unrest. Already US envoy Richard Holbrooke has expressed the fear that the vote would be disputed.
On the other hand, the Taliban militants had vowed to disrupt the poll which must have hurt voter turnout especially in the Pashtun south which has overwhelmingly supported Karzai. In the leaflets the Taliban threatened to attack polling stations, escalating their bid to derail the election for President and Provincial Assemblies. Taliban hoped to undermine the legitimacy of the election by reducing the voter turnout.
"Attempts to defeat the insurgency in Afghanistan primarily by military means have not been successful", said Thomas Rutting of the Afghan Analysts Network, an independent policy research organization. "They have only driven more Afghans to take up arms."
In all likelihood, therefore, little is likely to change. The people may give their mandate to Karzai again and the US will continue push in more forces. Britain has already given a timeframe of many years for the conditions to stabilize and the foreign troops to return home. Till then, there will be a cat and mouse battle between the Taliban guerillas and the security forces.
For India, this will not be a happy position. It will continue with its present policy of increasing its influence in Afghanistan. Pakistan will continue to exploit the disturbed situation not withstanding its "battle" (not "war") with its own Taliban. In the short and medium term, South-West Asia will remain in turmoil.
