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123 nuclear agreement: India’s lobbying pays off |
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Harjit Singh
Although any hidden catch in the final text of the Indo-US 123 nuclear agreement hammered out by Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon and US Under Secretary of State Nicholas Burns will be known when text of the pact is released in the coming days, the selective leaks in New Delhi and Washington speak of India having won the battle. It seems to have made the US almost sign on the dotted line although the diplomatic language used in the agreement is expected to be such that it will not be seen as a victory of one over another. It is a mutually satisfying document, says a joint statement by External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee and US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice issued simultaneously in New Delhi and Washington. The pact is so satisfying that both the Left and NDA leaders, who were never tired of finding fault with the pact earlier, gave measured support to the deal after being briefed by Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh and his top aides at separate meetings at his residence, although they reserved their final reaction till the time they go through the fine print of the text, when it is released. But, the fact that even the chief of the Atomic Energy Commission, Anil Kakodkar, who had strong reservations earlier, supported it when he appeared before newsmen along with National Security Advisor shows that the final agreement has more or less met Indian concerns. It is also evident that the agreement is in consonance with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s assurances in Parliament that nothing will be done to compromise India’s nuclear programme and that any agreement will have to be within the parameters of his joint statement with President Bush.
Of course, the agreement may not win immediate approval with some US law makers on the Capitol Hill writing a letter to President Bush warning him that any provision in the agreement which is outside the Hyde Pact will be unacceptable, reminding him that the final agreement will have to be approved in an up-down vote by Congress.
So, though India has won the first round of the battle, there could still be a slip between the cup and the lip. President Bush in almost the fag end of his second term and keen to achieve yet another foreign policy feather on his cap before he bows out has in the past seen to it that his views prevail even when Congressmen are defiant. But, he may not now have enough leverage and clout to have his say on the final document, with the Democrats in control of Congress and he himself on his way out.
There are also further hurdles in the way. While negotiating a separate safeguards agreement with the IAEA may not be a problem, a nod by the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group is easier said than done despite a promise by the United States to lobby for it. India has to be given an exception from the stringent guidelines laid down by the NSG for the sale of nuclear power related technology to countries suspected of pursuing nuclear weapons. India is sought to be made an exception despite its having twice tested a nuclear device and refusing to sign the NPT. The US giving India an escape route in the 123 agreement for a further nuclear test [depending on the circumstances] may not go down well with the NSG members. And then, China, which is lobbying Pakistan’s case at the NSG, may be a hard nut to crack. Since a consensus needs to be built at the NSG for extending concessions to India, the opposition of even one country may turn the tables against this country.
Therefore, the deal as negotiated in Washington may be a pyrrhic victory for India which still has many hurdles to cross before celebrating the accord.
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