The Bangladesh Foreign Minister, Dipu Moni, is coming to New Delhi this month ahead of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s visit to India later in the year. Her visit, the first intense high-level contact between the two governments after the UPA began its second innings at the helm of affairs in New Delhi in May, would provide opportunity to the two countries to review bilateral issues and the threat from terrorism to the South Asian region.
There is relief over a friendly Awami League Government in power in Dhaka. In the elections held on 29 December, 2008 the Awami League won more than two-thirds of the seats. The Jamaat-e-Islami went down from 17 seats in 2001 to just two seats in 2008. The BNP (Bangladesh Nationalist Party) and its coalition partners also lost seats. But there is also concern that for reasons of internal political compulsions, the Hasina Government is not able to take decisions which would be seen as appeasing New Delhi. These will be frowned upon by the opposition BNP of Begum Khaleda Zia who during her regime was an outspoken critic of India and called the insurgents of India’s North-East outfits “freedom fighters”.
There are a number of bilateral issues that need to be resolved. One of them would be the Bangladeshi objection to India taking in hand the Tipaimukh hydro-electric project near the confluence of the Barak and Tuivai rivers in Manipur. Tempers are running high among civil society groups, environmentalists and political parties in Bangladesh while media stories are warning of its implications on the share of water flowing from upper riparian India. The Opposition BNP is exploiting the situation by fanning anti-India sentiments. It refused to nominate a member on a team of Parliamentarians and water experts which visited the dam site in India last month.
Terrorism and New Delhi’s complaints of the ISI using Bangladesh to send in militants as well as the insurgent groups from India’s restive North-East having set up bases in Bangladesh are yet another area of Indian concern. India is demanding extradition of ULFA chief Anup Chetia and other militants belonging to the outlawed outfit who are in Bangladesh. New Delhi has made this request to Dhaka on several occasions in the past. Now that a ‘friendly’ government is in place in Bangladesh, New Delhi is hopeful that Chetia’s extradition to India could be a possibility.
New Delhi is also encouraged by some of the steps taken by Bangladesh in recent months to check the activities of anti-India elements operating from its soil. Bangladesh had last month arrested two Indian militants, who had been hiding there for 15 years, in a span of one week.
Sheikh Hasina began well by acting against the training camps for secessionist rebels of north-eastern India run by the DGFI (Directorate of Forces Intelligence) and Islamist organizations but faced intense internal pressure, with Begum Khaleda Zia describing the rebels as “freedom fighters” who deserved support. The reign of terror was unleashed by organizations like the HUJI, Jamaat-ul Mujahideen Bangladesh and Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh which, with the blessings of a section of the Government, targeted NGOs, liberal intellectuals, politicians and the Awami League. She escaped death during a grenade attack on an Awami League rally in Dhaka on August 21, 2004, which killed 23 people. All this bred in her a steely determination to wipe out terrorism. It is on full display with the arrest of Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorists and Dawood Ibrahim’s men active in Bangladesh. Rebels of North-Eastern India are under pressure.
It may be recalled that the Awami League had been in the wilderness since Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s assassination in 1975. During this period, the disguised as well as undisguised military dictatorships under Gen. Zia-ur Rehman and Gen H.M. Ershad, as well as the elected Government of Begum Khaleda Zia during her first prime ministerial incarnation (1991-1996), had swamped the bureaucracy, the armed and paramilitary forces, and the intelligence agencies with pro-Pakistan and anti-India elements, while systematically trying to Islamize Bangladesh. Significantly, Gen.Zia-ur-Rehman had set up the DGFI in November 1977, shortly after a visit to Dhaka by the then ISI chief, Lt.-Gen. Ghulam Jilani Khan. It is a clone of the ISI which has trained many of its officers.
There are also issues of trade, commerce and investment with India but the issue of counter terrorism will be the utmost priority. Prime Minister Hasina has indicated that terrorism is her top priority and has sought a possible task force for entire South Asia.
Observers say there is a need to consider energy cooperation within the region urgently. Bangladesh has tremendous potential of gas reserves and Nepal has immense hydel power potential. Yet the region remains energy-deficient. There is a need to also take another look at the trilateral pipeline project.
There are several other thorny issues pending between India and Bangladesh such as the unresolved issues of land and maritime boundaries. These issues need to be resolved most urgently so that such minor issues do not impede progress on everything else. The two border forces continue to have skirmishes which should be looked into.
Bangladesh currently also has a huge trade imbalance with India, a difference of US$2 billion in formal trade with India. Similarly, there is the major issue of illegal migration on which the governments of the two nations do not view things objectively. There is a need for pragmatism from both sides.
Some of these pressing problems will hopefully be taken up when Dipu Moni and later Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina come to India.
