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‘Aam Aadmi’ Budget prepares the pitch for early elections

	March 03, 2008

With a populist Budget proposing a Rs 60,000 crore loan waiver for indebted farmers and massive tax concessions for the middle class, the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) Government, appears to be setting the stage for elections, the only question being how soon they will come, later this year or early next year.



Observers say that presenting the fifth and last full Budget of the UPA Government, Finance Minister P. Chidambaram deftly packaged politics and economics to pre-empt criticism from any quarter ahead of Lok Sabha elections due next year.



Apart from the loan waiver for small and marginal farmers the government has decided to extend the job guarantee scheme to all districts and also reduce excise duty, which is expected to help in bringing down the prices of a wide variety of goods.



Significantly, the presentation of the Union Budget on Friday, Feb. 29, came after the opposition National Democratic Alliance led by the BJP and the United National Progressive Alliance, popularly known as the Third Front, held up proceedings in Parliament during the preceding days, raising the issue of the agrarian crisis and demanding that farm loan should be waived. But when Finance Minister Chidambaram waived an unprecedented Rs 60,000 crore of farm loans, constituents of the NDA and the UNPA were silent as they did not want to join the Congress benches in hailing the concessions for the farm sector and the middle class.



The discomfiture of these parties was evident when they resorted to nit-picking, demanding details of how the government was going to meet the requirement of funds for the loan waiver and for carrying out the recommendations of the Sixth Pay Commission for Central Government employees.



The Left parties supporting the Manmohan Singh Government from outside, while welcoming the loan waiver for debt-ridden farmers, said that the content, tone and tenor of the Union Budget reflected the preparedness for general elections. They faulted the Finance Minister for not spelling out measures to contain inflation and strengthen food security and the public distribution system. Addressing a news conference in New Delhi, CPI(M) politburo member Sitaram Yechury, while conceding that many concerns expressed by the Left parties had been addressed to a large extent, said that the Budget did not have any measure to strengthen food security. Observers say, with the Finance Minister taking the wind out of the sails of the opposition and the Left with his concessions for all sections, they had no option but to pick holes on one pretext or the other. In this context can be seen CPI national secretary D. Raja’s statement that the Left demand for setting up a National Rural Debt Relief Commission had not been accepted.



So far as the NDA is concerned, its constituent parties raised the point that the Budget should have also brought relief to farmers who are in the clutches of private money lenders.



Leader of the Opposition L. K. Advani was joined by Janata Dal (United) president Sharad Yadav and Shiv Sena leader Anant Geete in pointing out that nothing had been done for those who had taken loans from money-lenders at exorbitant interest rates.



While conceding that there were aspects in the budget that were welcome — loan waiver for marginal and small farmers, changes in direct tax slabs benefiting the middle class — the BJP leaders dismissed these as election year sops.



The other point on which the NDA leaders were united was that interest on credit to the farming sector should have been reduced to four per cent (from the current seven per cent).



‘Communal overtones’: Advani



Advani described the budget exercise as a “charade” and saw in it “heavy communal overtones” — he was perhaps referring to the fact that this was seen by many as an election-year exercise and there were schemes for scholarships for minorities and other weaker sections.



Speaking on behalf of the BJP, former Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha said that the budget proposals on debt relief for farmers had been “leaked” to the Congress, hence the “elaborate drama” of farmers’ delegations at the AICC office during the past few days. He wondered why no budgetary provision had been made for the loan waiver of Rs.60,000 crore and warned that the government “should not issue bonds to banks” and thus put the debt burden on the future.



He found fault with the budget for lack of policy announcements on economic reforms, including infrastructure and inflation. His forecast was that the budget would be inflationary and “could further slow down the economy.”



Almost all Opposition members wondered how the government would be able to meet the deadline of June 30, 2008 set by the Finance Minister for waiver of loans. That date only suggested “early general elections” Sinha said.



Privately, BJP MPs conceded that the UPA government had done more for the salaried middle class than the NDA had done.





Is the country heading for early general election ?



With the massive farm loan waiver, described as a revolutionary step by Congress president Sonia Gandhi catching even senior party leaders by surprise, there are reports that Congress leaders feel that the party might well like to head for general elections along with the scheduled Assembly elections in BJP-ruled states such as, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh by the end of this year in order to reap the dividends of the feel good spirit in the farming community. This will also help the Congress to gain from the perceived anti-incumbency public mood in these key states, which are ruled by the BJP.



Congress leaders say that the positives of the Budget would also provide leverage to the government to move forward on the Indo-US civilian nuclear deal.



The American side has consistently indicated in recent days that July-August could well be the deadline for clinching the deal – a timeframe that would fall in a possible Congress leadership scheme of things to up the ante towards giving the decisive, final push to the deal regardless of its Left allies’ threat to pull the plug on the government. Even if the Left keeps its word and topples the government, they would thereby oblige the Congress in setting the stage for year-end parliamentary polls which might only suit the latter.



Just moments after the Budget presentation, Congress workers and farmers thronged Sonia Gandhi’s 10 Janpath residence in New Delhi to offer their “thanks” to her over the farmers’ package. Evidently, they were already anticipating the massive farm sops. The Prime Minister also called on Sonia Gandhi.



“Today is a very happy occasion. The agricultural loan waiver is a revolutionary step,” Sonia Gandhi told the large farmers’ gathering. “I congratulate the UPA government and Finance Minister P. Chidambaram for it.”



Dr Manmohan Singh justified the agricultural loan waiver as a “very unorthodox response” meant to raise the depressed “spirits” of the farmers. Describing his government’s fifth budget as “excellent and outstanding”, he complimented Finance Minister P. Chidambaram on doing “a very good job” of presenting a “pro-agriculture and pro-investment” Budget.



Consolidate gains from the Railway and general budgets: Congressmen



Reports say that there is euphoria in the Congress party over the general Budget presented by Finance Minister Chidambaram. Earlier the party was almost in despair over price rise and farmers’ suicides.



“Many of us want Lok Sabha polls along with the year-end Assembly polls in Chhattisgarh, MP, Rajasthan and other states to tap this euphoria and the assurance that the loan waiver scheme would be completed by June 2008 and one crore rural landless people would be covered under the aam aadmi insurance scheme by September. Any delay may dilute its impact. Others, however, prefer a cautious approach and want to see the schemes take root lest there is a replay of the NDA’s India Shining fiasco,” said a well-placed Congress leader.



Party leaders favouring early Lok Sabha polls also feel the need to consolidate the gains from the Railway and general budgets by going for the nuclear deal and the women’s reservation bill, which they say could be introduced in the Rajya Sabha.



The Congress Working Committee meeting this week and Sonia Gandhi’s customary interaction with MPs during the Parliament session may indicate what impact the Budget may have on elections. The big question is whether the allies will agree.



“Why not? The NCP is as euphoric as the Congress about the loan waiver since Sharad Pawar is Agriculture Minister and hails from Maharashtra, where farmers’ suicides have taken place. The DMK is happy as it has had its way on the Sethusamudram project and RJD’s Lalu Yadav can encash his populist Railway budget,” said a Congress leader. The other view is that the allies may not like to curtail their stint in power.





Take action against illegal moneylenders: Sharad Pawar



Following the loan waiver announced in the Union Budget, Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar has asked farmers all over the country not to repay loans taken from illegal moneylenders. Addressing mediapersons in Mumbai on March 1, he appealed to the state governments to support farmers caught in the trap of illegal moneylenders. He said some machinery can be set up at block level to protect farmers from harassment by illegal moneylenders.





Fight for taking credit for loan waiver



Days before the budget, it became very clear that the Congress as well as the opposition parties were fighting for taking the credit for concessions to be announced in the Union budget for the farm sector. On Wednesday, February 27, the NDA and the Third Front members stalled the proceedings in both houses of Parliament demanding suspension of the Question Hour to take up discussion on farmers’ issues. Both Houses were adjourned for the day soon after they assembled twice during the day.



In the Lok Sabha, NDA members wanted an immediate discussion on the farmers' issue saying they had moved adjournment motions and that the discussion be taken up forthwith.



They were joined by UNPA members who stormed into the well and disrupted proceedings.



Amid noisy scenes, Speaker Somnath Chatterjee ordered laying of papers listed for the day and special mentions before adjourning the House.



The week saw the opposition raising the ante on the "neglect" of the farm sector.



The main component of UNPA armoury, the issue also saw the Left finally responding to calls from "Third Front" satraps like N Chandrababu Naidu, Mulayam Singh Yadav and Om Prakash Chautala for joint action.



And when Congress leaders brought a small contingent of farmers from Punjab to provide Congress chief Sonia Gandhi and PM Manmohan Singh with the platform to point to the sops for the farmers in the budget, the Akalis staged a much bigger rally.





Need for better implementation of job guarantee scheme: Rahul Gandhi



On Thursday, Feb. 28, a day before the budget presentation, Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi, accompanied by other young MPs of the party met Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to press the demand for better implementation of the UPA government’s flagship development programme, the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act. The move came in the make of opposition ruled states taking the credit for the success of the scheme where it is working and the Congress having to take the flak for the drawbacks.



“We met the Prime Minister to discuss the implementation of the NREGA. We gave some suggestions on how we can improve it,” Rahul Gandhi told reporters after the meeting. The delegation’s eight recommendations to the PM included suggestions like a centralised monitoring mechanism and institutionalised social auditing for the scheme, an IT infrastructure to make the scheme online and bringing about better co-ordination among different states.



The Congress MPs said despite the scheme being the Congress’ brainchild, the party was not getting due credit for it. The demand for centralizing the monitoring mechanism stems from the party’s feeling that non-Congress ruled states were staking “ownership” claim over the programme despite contributing just 10 per cent of the total required funds.





Focus on the common man in President’s Address



The government being in the election mode was evident also in President Pratibha Patil’s address to a joint sitting of both Houses of Parliament on the opening day of the Budget session on February 25. In her maiden address to Parliament, prepared by the ruling dispensation, the President promised an inclusive growth that would keep the GDP rising while not allowing prices to go up. The address highlighted the government’s accomplishments and agenda seeking to serve the interests of the common people, especially farmers, minorities and downtrodden sections.



Significantly, the President’s address also indicated the government’s final effort to push the nuclear deal through. “It is our hope that civil nuclear cooperation with the US and other friendly countries will become possible,” Pratibha Patil said. Her comment came on a day when Indian negotiators from the Department of Atomic Energy were meeting experts at the International Atomic Energy Agency’s secretariat in Vienna to finalise the draft of an India-specific safeguards agreement.



Over three months and half a dozen meetings since Delhi went to the IAEA, there is still no satisfactory final draft agreement, belying the initial confidence expressed when India went to the IAEA on November 21.



The Left-UPA mechanism would have to vet the draft before Delhi agrees and sends it to the IAEA board of governors, due to meet in the third week of March. After the IAEA approves the agreement, the Nuclear Suppliers Group will provide India a waiver, only after which it can resume trade in civilian nuclear goods.





The BJP as well as the Left parties slammed the President’s address on wide ranging grounds.



Referring to the President’s remarks about inclusive growth in the country, CPI(M) parliamentary party leader Sitaram Yechury said there was no realisation that the ‘suffering India’ existed with a ‘shining India’. He said unless drastic steps are taken, the growing hiatus between the two Indias would not be bridged.



The BJP criticized the President’s address for not mentioning, among other things, issues like the state of national security, suicides by farmers across the country and Parliament terror attack convict Afzal Guru’s hanging.



Left parties’ warning



Reacting to the hints in the President’s Address that the nuclear deal would sail through, the Left parties reiterated their opposition to the nuclear deal with the United States and said that the UPA government would risk its stability if it decided to go ahead with the deal.



CPI(M) leader Sitaram Yechury said his party’s “stand on the nuclear deal remains the same.”



CPI national secretary and MP D. Raja said, there was no change in the Left stand. “We are firm in our opposition to the deal. It is the U.S. which is showing desperation and indulging in pressure tactics to bend India to sign the nuclear deal,” he said. Raja said the President’s comments on the nuclear deal did not reflect the view of Parliament.



The Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP)’s newly elected general secretary T.J. Chandrachoodan said the UPA will have to “choose between the deal and government.”



He said the Left parties would “scuttle the deal” and warned that if the government went ahead with it, it would be in “trouble.”





Badal’s son showcased in Akali-BJP rally



The Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP kisan rally held in the national capital on February 26, apart from highlighting the plight of farmers, also served as a platform for launching newly installed Shiromani Akali Dal chief Sukhbir Singh Badal, son of Punjab Chief Minster Parkash Singh Badal, on a bigger political firmament.



The entire length and breadth of the historic Ramlila Ground in New Delhi was bedecked with huge hoardings of the father-son duo – Parkash Singh Badal and Sukhbir – barring an exception near the dais area where the presence of senior BJP leaders had also been ensured. But Badal junior, clenching his fists, strategically stood out with his huge posters portraying the young SAD chief as a symbol of struggle.



Speaker after speaker led by BJP chief Rajnath Singh and Chief Minister Badal down to his old colleagues poured scorn on the Congress-led UPA dispensation for ignoring the farm sector. They skillfully used the opportunity to wish and bless Sukhbir to carry forward his father’s legacy.



Left leaders join UNPA rally



On the other side of the political divide, Left leaders for the first time addressed a farmers’ rally in New Delhi organised by the United National Progressive Alliance as a gesture of solidarity for raising farmers’ issues. Observers say, the message that went out from the rally was that the Left is supporting the UNPA’s bid for a third alternative, non-Congress and non-BJP.



Besides the Left leaders, the rally was addressed by Samajwadi Party chief and UNPA chairman Mulayam Singh Yadav, TDP supremo Chandrababu Naidu, Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) chief Om Prakash Chautala, Asom Gana Parishad chief Brindavan Goswami and Jharkhand Vikas Party chief Babulal Marandi.



“It is time for us to work towards the formation of a third alternative in the country’s polity. It is time that we hold joint struggles,” said CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat.



“The government’s path to development is benefiting only the big industrialists, and in turn, these industrialists are influencing the economic and foreign policy of the country,” he added.



Although Karat avoided any direct mention of the Indo-US nuclear deal, he said the visit of US Defence Secretary Robert Gates was aimed at concluding “several vital agreements” including some in the field of military cooperation.





Mayawati demands quota for dalit converts



Criticising the Congress and the BJP for following a divide and rule policy to create differences between the dalits and the backward classes, Bahujan Samaj Party chief and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati has demanded reservation for Muslims, Christians and other religious minorities, who had converted from backward communities in the past. Addressing a rally in New Delhi on February 24, she said that she had already written to the Centre on the issue.



Speaking about socio-economic changes taking place in her state, Mayawati said a stable Uttar Pradesh would be the backbone of a stable government at the Centre in future.



Significantly, Mayawati skirted the issue of withdrawal of support to the Centre. Despite the rally being held on the eve of the Budget session of Parliament, Mayawati did not refer to her earlier threat to take a decision on the issue of withdrawal of support to the Congress-led coalition at the Centre after March 10.



Even on the Taj corridor issue and the disproportionate assets case, she did not name the Congress directly but charged the BJP with "joining hands with other parties to tarnish her image" by raking up such issues.



The Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister cautioned against a "ploy" to project the BSP as an anti-upper caste party and said the truth was just the opposite.



Mayawati justified her practice of receiving gifts from her party workers saying, "It will lead the party in making pro-poor policies when it comes to power."





BJP retains Pauri Lok Sabha seat: Not much cheer for Chief Minister



In Uttarakhand, the BJP has retained the Pauri Lak Sabha seat for the fourth time in a row with its candidate (Ret) Lt. Gen. T.P.S. Rawat defeating his political guru, Satpal Maharaj of the Congress by 4,506 votes. Despite leading by 98 votes after counting of votes recorded in electoral voting machines, Satpal Maharaj lost after the counting of postal ballots. It appears that most of the postal ballots of soldiers belonging to Garhwal and Kumaon regions posted in different parts of the country went in favour of the BJP candidate.



The Congress candidate posed a stiff challenge to the BJP and managed to establish a lead in most of the Assembly seats covered by the Lok Sabha constituency. Political observers say that although the BJP won the election, there is not much to cheer about for Chief Minister B.C. Khanduri, whose resignation from the Lok Sabha resulted in the by-election. He may now find it difficult to convince the BJP high command that he would be able to ensure the party’s victory in the Lok Sabha elections due next year.